NPB Tracker

Update, Dec 12: Sanspo is now reporting that a deal to the Brewers is ‘imminent’. The scenario put forth has Igawa included with Melky Cabrera in exchange for Mike Cameron. Bleacher Report disagrees though. Sanspo also says that the Yankees were trying to trade Igawa to Detroit for money.

Sanspo is reporting that Yankees are making progress in trade discussions involving Kei Igawa. Sanspo is calling out the Tigers as the most interested party, but they may just be enjoying the fact that Igawa is a former Hanshin Tiger. Igawa was decent in AAA in 2008, but the $12m he is still owed over the next three years is the stumbling block for an acquiring team.

Igawa is not the Yanks’ 40-man roster, and thus eligible for the rule 5 draft. Selecting him would require the acquiring team to keep him on their big league roster all year, or offer him back to New York (I think they’d probably let him go).

Channeling mlbtraderumors for the second straight day…

• Looks like Takashi Saito is non-tender candidate. He was admittedly awful in his playoff appearance, but given how great he’s been the last few years I think he deserves another shot.
• Dan Evans has spoken to over 10 teams about Kenshin Kawakami.
• The Giants are reportedly in on Tadahito Iguchi.
• Kei Igawa visited Hanshin’s office, fueling speculation that he might be headed back to the Tigers. Igawa insists that he’s focused on succeeding in America. Igawa is eligible for the rule 5 draft this year… I’ll have more on him in a couple days.
• Texas AAA reliever Yukinaga Maeda announced his retirement last week.

To me, the trend of NPB stars moving to MLB has meant more jobs for Japanese players and more opportunities for exchange. For others, it’s signified a decline in Japanese baseball. But let’s take a look at how each player’s move to MLB has affected the teams involved. 

Player movement is a part of the business of baseball, and while there’s a general trend of Japanese players wanting to test their skills in MLB, each situation is a little bit different. We’ve seen players ranging from role players like Hideki Okajima and So Taguchi to Hall of Fame-caliber stars like Ichiro and Daisuke Matsuzaka make the move over. We’ve MLB departures go unnoticed, and have a huge impact on a team’s fanbase. So let’s examine each case and see what the impact has been overall.

2008

Hiroki Kuroda (SP, Carp -> Dodgers): Despite losing both Kuroda and star 1st baseman Takahiro Arai (Hanshin) to free agency, Hiroshima still managed to improve from 5th place (60-82-2) in 2007 to 4th (69-70-5) in 2008. Of course, if the Carp had been able to hang on to either one of those guys, they probably would have beat out Chunichi for the last playoff spot. Still, Colby Lewis did an outstanding job taking over for Kuroda as the ace, and the team looks primed to make a step forward in it’s new stadium.

Impact: Medium. Losing Kuroda probably kept the Carp out of the playoffs in ’08, but the team still improved on it’s record. Hiroshima is a small market and losing free agents domestically been a reality for the Carp for years.

Kosuke Fukudome (RF, Dragons -> Cubs): Chunichi won the Japan Series in 2007 despite Fukudome missing significant time due to injuries. The Dragons signed veteran slugger Kazuhiro Wada to take Fukudome’s place in the lineup, surrendering reliever Shinya Okamoto the Lions as compensation. Wada had a solid year (.302/.345/.475) but Chunichi fell from 2nd to 3rd place, and lost out to the Giants in the playoffs.

Impact: High. Wada is an above-average hitter but lacks Fukudome’s defensive skills, and cost the Dragons some bullpen depth. Chunichi looks set for a step back next season with Kenshin Kawakami and Norihiro Nakamura out the door as well. The team continues to draw well though.

Masa Kobayashi (RP, Marines -> Indians)
Yasuhiko Yabuta (RP, Marines -> Royals): Soichi Fujita (Yomiuri) departed as well, breaking up Lotte’s “YFK” relief combination. The Marines dropped from 2nd place in 2007 (76-61-7) to 4th (73-70-1) in 2008. Bullpen performance may have played a role in the increase in losses (six fewer ties compared to 2007), but Bobby Valentine still had four relievers who posted an era of 3.05 or lower. 

Impact: Low. Bullpens fluctuate, and on paper Lotte managed to replace the performance they got out of Yabuta and Kobayashi. 

Kazuo Fukumori (RP, Eagles -> Rangers): Rakuten seemed ready to compete for a playoff spot for most of 2008, but wound up finishing one game out of last despite outscoring their opponents by 20 runs. A return to form from Fukumori would have helped, but this was a guy that posted a 4.75 ERA in 2007.

Impact: Minimal. Fukumori was expendable coming off a bad season. 

2007

Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP, Lions -> Red Sox): Obviously a huge loss for the Lions, as they went from 2nd (80-54-2) to 5th (66-76-2). Jason Johnson was signed to replace Matsuzaka in the rotation, but was more interested in hanging out in Roppongi and never panned out. Hideaki Wakui, on the other hand, established himself as an ace, and the team rebounded in 2008 to win the Japan Series. Seibu used the $51M they received for Matsuzaka to make some stadium improvements, but otherwise hasn’t changed the way they run the team.

Impact: Medium. Everyone knew Matsuzaka was going to MLB, and Seibu got the maximum return by hanging on to Matsuzaka for as long as they could. Despite popularity problems, Seibu has always found ways to win. 

Hideki Okajima (RP, Fighters -> Red Sox): Nippon Ham lost some bullpen depth when Okajima left, but still managed to make it to their 2nd consecutive Japan Series in 2007. The Fighters acquired Okajima for a couple of very spare parts so they basically got a free year out of him. 

Impact: Low. Losing Michihiro Ogasawara (Yomiuri) and Tsuyoshi Shinjo (retirement) has had a bigger affect on Nippon Ham’s competitiveness. I wold suggest that Trey Hillman’s departure to MLB had a bigger impact on the Fighters than Okajima’s.

Kei Igawa (SP, Tigers -> Yankees): Igawa went 14-9 in 2006 as Hanshin finished 2nd to Chunichi with an 84-58-4 record. Without him in 2007, Hanshin dropped to 74-66-4 and a 3rd place finish. In addition to the loss of Igawa, Hanshin’s other starters took a step back in 2007, with Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi leading the team in innings pitched with just 129 1/3. Igawa’s departure also coincided with the Tigers’ offense regressing, as Tomoaki Kanemoto, Andy Sheets, Akihiro Yano and Osamu Hamanaka all performing significantly worse than the previous season.

The rotation improved 2008, with Minoru Iwata stepping into a more prominent role. The offense improved as well, and Hanshin led the Central League comfortably for most of the year before choking down the stretch to finish 2nd. 

Impact: Medium. Igawa was the only significant personel change, and the team finished 10 wins worse in 2007 than in 2006. Hanshin recovered in 2008 though, and the loss of Igawa never affected the team at the gate. Igawa was inconsistent for his last three seasons in Japan, but the Tigers still haven’t found an innings eater to take his place. Looking back though, Hanshin definitely sold high on Igawa and got a nice infusion of cash back for him without sacrificing on long-term competitiveness.

Akinori Iwamura  (3B, Swallows -> Rays): Yakult replaced Iwamura on the field with Aaron Guiel, and saw it’s record go from 70-73-3 in ’06 to 60-84-0 in ’07. It wasn’t Guiel that cost the team 10 wins, as he posted an .874 OPS compared to Iwamura’s .933 mark in ’06. Guiel dsappeared in ’08 as the Swallows rebounded slightly to 66-74-4. 

Impact: High. Short-term, the impact of losing Iwamura probably wasn’t that great. By the time Iwamura was sold to the Rays, most of the Swallows stars from the team’s mid-90’s glory years were gone or fading, and the team was heading into a period of decline anyway. Yakult has a star to build around in Norichika Aoki, but losing Iwamura has certainly slowed their return to competitiveness. 

Masumi Kuwata (SP, Giants -> Pirates): The Giants had banished Kuwata to the farm team for all of 2006 and didn’t notice he was gone. Kuwata, meanwhile, had a great “nothing to lose” attitude during his time with the Pirates.

Impact: None, except making the Giants look bad for unceremoniously dropping another veteran.

Agree? Disagree? Any information I haven’t presented here? 

I’ll look at players that moved from 2000-2006 in parts 2 and 3 of this series.

Japanese Articles:

• Orix has removed the interim tag from manager Daijiro Ohishi’s title. Ohishi has led the team back into contention after a dismal start to the season.
• In more Orix news, veteran slugger Kazuhiro Kiyohara appeared in his first game since 2006. Kiyohara entered the game in 7th innning as a pinch hitter, striking out swinging in his only at bat in what looks like the beginning of his farewell tour.
• Kei Igawa commented his removal from the Yankees 40-man roster on his blog. He mostly reiterates things that he’s said before: that he has no intention of returning to Japan and that he’s using this experience as motivation to reach the Major Leagues.

English Articles:

• Tokyo Big6 University League rivals Waseda and Keio are travelling to Brazil to play some exhibition games in recognition of 100 years of Japanese immigration to Brazil.
• The Royals designated Yasuhiko Yabuta for assignment, giving the Royals 10 days to trade or release the former Lotte reliever.
• Bobby Valentine comments on his Marines’ 2nd half chances on Marines.tv.
• Deanna treats us to postings on All-Star Game 1 and Game 2.

Kei Igawa has been in the news a bit this last week, first because of his rumored inclusion in a trade for Jarrod Washburn, later for his removal from the Yankee’s 40-man roster. Igawa responded by pitching a solid game for Scranton, winning his 10th game in 3A this year. Others reacted differently.

Hanshin Tigers team president Minami gave Igawa a little tough love in the Japanese press.

“At the stage, we have no plans of re-acquiring Igawa”

“This isn’t a half-hearted world. This is a world where you have to fight hard, and if the results aren’t there that’s too bad. He just has to do his best.”

Reactions in the Yankee’s blogosphere range from sympathetic to brutal, but everyone seems to agree that moving him would be better for everyone. I did a little research and found a clip of him getting 3A batters out and, more interestingly, this scouting report that breaks down why he might be struggling. The writer hypothesizes that Igawa’s mechanics make it hard for him to get the ball down in the zone.

I saw plenty of Igawa during the 2001-3 seasons when he was at his peak with Hanshin. His out pitch was his changeup, and when he had command of it he was really tough on NPB batters. When he didn’t he was more hittable. He didn’t perform as well from 2004-6, and I was surprised that he commanded a $26M posting fee, and in retrospect, I think the Yankees were expecting too much.

So, where might Igawa wind up? I don’t see him going to the Mariners, both because of his performance uncertainties and perceived chemistry problems with the Japanese players that are already there. I also happened across a pre-posting scouting report that indicates that the Mariners might not have been too keen on him in the first place either.

A better destination would be in the National League, where there’s no DH and the lineups might not be quite as deep as in the AL East. St. Louis has an excellent history with pitcher reclamation projects and could use some depth in the rotation. Another option is Atlanta; they have a good track record with reclamation types as well. San Diego has a pitcher-friendly home park, and is comfortably situated on the west coast. And I think Florida would take a flyer on him if the price were right.

Igawa has a ways to go to prove himself as a MLB-caliber starter. In the right environment I think he’s got a shot but that probably won’t happen in the NYC.

Looks like Kei Igawa was pushed off the Yankee’s 40-man roster after the team acquired Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. He cleared waivers unclaimed.

Nikkan Sports has a quote from Igawa:

“I was told by my agent that this increases my chance of playing for a different team. I have absolutely no interest in going back to Japan. I want to deal with this in the minors and seize my opportunity to reach the Majors in America.”

I hope the Yankees do find a way to move Igawa to a different team. It seems clear that he’ll never thrive in NYC, but if he had a chance to move to an NL team in a good pitcher’s park, he might do alright.