NPB Tracker

Edit, December 20 AM: Corrected the details of the Lerew situation. It’s close, but not a done deal yet.

Three new sukketo players will make their way to Japan for the first time in 2011.

• Readers of this site are well-informed and have already been discussing this one, but I’ll post it anyway. Rakuten has signed pitcher Kelvin Jimenez, who spent last season with Doosan of the KBO. Jimenez won 14 games in Korea in 2010, and will be a rotation option to go with
• Softbank is close to acquiring pitcher Anthony Lerew. The two sides are working out the finer points of a one-year deal paying about 50m yen (roughly $600k). Softbank is looking for Lerew to improve the righty side of its rotation.
• Chunichi signed 1B/3B/OF Joel Guzman to a one-year, $500k deal. Comments from Chunichi’s Mori-head coach suggest that they picked up Guzman to keep incumbent 1B slugger Tony Blanco honest. Guzman was once a top prospects for the Dodgers and (Devil) Rays.

And this post features a bonus export:

• The Cleveland Indians have signed former Yomiuri pitcher Toru Murata. This signing is in the same mold as the Orioles getting Ryohei Tanaka a few years ago; Murat is a former first-round draft pick who never reached the top level in NPB. At 25 he should still have some upside left.

Orix’s hot stove is heating up. Sponichi reports that the to-be-rebranded Buffaloes have begun negotiating with Detroit pitcher Alfredo Figaro. Figaro seems like he would be a good pick-up for Kansai’s second team, as Marc Hulet of FanGraphs graded him as Detroit’s ninth-best prospect going into the 2010 season, saying that “got more than enough to offer in the back end of the rotation as a fourth starter.” Back in 2009, Harry Pavilidis of the Hardball Times pointed out that he had the second best whiff-rate among that seasons rookie pitchers.

The same Sponichi report also says that Orix is near an agreement with Mike Hessman.

The bigger news is that Orix has agreed to a multi-player trade that would send lefty starter Shogo Yamamoto to Yokohama in return for pitcher Hayato Terahara. We’ll have to wait and see who the other players involved are, but based on what’s been announced so far, this is a big win for Orix. Terahara is injury-prone but has been the most talented pitcher on Yokohama’s staff over the last few seasons. The BayStars made an inspired move to get him from Softbank a few years ago, so it comes as surprise they’d move him along for a guy like Yamamoto. Let’s hope there’s more to this trade than meets the eye.

I haven’t done a great job of staying up to date with NPB transactions this offseason. To catch up on things, here’s my tally of who’s signed so far this autumn:

• Bryan Bullington signed with Hiroshima
• Chad Tracy signed with Hiroshima
• Dennis Sarfate signed with Hiroshima
• Jonathan Albaladejo signed with Yomiuri
• Carlos Torres signed with Yomiuri.
• Micah Hoffpauir signed with Nippon Ham
• Marcos Vechionacci is about to sign as an ikusei player with Hanshin.
• Robert Zarate signed as an ikusei player with Hanshin
• Wladimir Balentien signed with Yakult

In addition, Hiroshima added Scott McClain as a US-based scout.

This year, I published my list of picks for Japan-bound players over at FanGraphs. So far I’ve gotten two correct, Bullington and Torres. I took a long look at Sarfate and Albaladejo, but I left Sarfate off because of his walk rate, and Albaladejo off because I thought he’d get a job in the Majors. I also asked FanGraphs’ readers to suggest players who could go over, and so far that list has produced one correct prediction, Hoffpauir.

Author’s note: I wrote this last Wednesday, before the Thanksgiving holiday, but decided not to publish it and deleted it. For some reason, it was not deleted, and I’ve changed my mind and decided to publish it, with a few edits.

Without assessing blame, I have to say that I’m quite disappointed at the way Oakland-Hisashi Iwakuma negotiations have gone. Being a resident of the Bay Area, I was really looking forward to the opportunity to watch each one of his starts and seeing if my optimism in him was justified. It’s not too late for the two sides to work out a deal but it isn’t looking good.

Iwakuma’s agent Don Nomura was a constant presence in the Japanese media for a few days after talks broke down last weekend. This Sponichi piece with his comments on the posting system caught my eye.

“This system is extremely one-side. The team (that acquired negotiating rights) can offer a minor league contract (and break off negotiations) without losing anything. The player’s side is at a disadvantage.”

“The top three bidding teams should get negotiating rights.”

Despite my afore stated disappointment, I find this kind of perversely poignant. Nomura’s gaming of the system in the 90’s led to the creation of the posting system. It seems oddly appropriate that he’s now frustrated by its limitations.

Neither side is without fault here — Iwakuma’s camp should have known that they were leaving a lot of negotiating leverage on the table by pursuing the posting process. And why did Oakland put in such an outsized bid (third biggest winning posting fee), only to follow it up with a seemingly low-ball offer? We’re missing some data and the story isn’t over yet, so we’ll just have to see how it plays out.

Update: In the press conference, Lotte’s management only said they would accept the high bid and didn’t identify the winning bidder. It’s been all over the place this morning that the Twins had the high bid.

The news is a day old at this point, but Tsuyoshi Nishioka has drawn at least one bid via the posting process. The Chiba Lotte Marines are expected to accept the high bid regardless of its amount, and have scheduled a press conference for November 26th (JST).

Here’s hoping things go better for Nishioka than they have for Hisashi Iwakuma.

Further Edit: Apparently, the four-year, $30m figure that Sponichi reported is inaccurate.

Update, Sunday Night: It’s being widely reported that Iwakuma will return to Rakuten next season. The Mainichi Shimbun has a piece with quotes attributed to Iwakuma’s agent (Don Nomura) as saying “the two sides won’t sit down at the negotiating table again” and “after our first proposal, we were thinking we had a compromise through negotiation, but the Athletics seemed to think ‘if you can’t take this price, you don’t have to come here’. That wasn’t a condition we could accept.”

Meanwhile, Sponichi is saying that Iwakuma was looking for a deal for four years, $30m, but the A’s were only offering $3.5 – $3.75 annually. Paraphrasing Sponichi, that’s about what Iwakuma has been making in Japan, and he’s used to seeing starting pitchers who move to MLB get a big raise relative to their last season in NPB. Such are the perils of the posting, in my opinion.

I thought Rakuten might try to post him again this offseason, but the rules stipulate that under this scenario, the player can’t be posted again until November 1 of the following year. By then, Iwakuma should have completed enough service time to qualify for free agency.

Sunday Afternoon: Interesting news from my fellow Bay Area-ian, Susan Slusser: negotiations between Oakland and Hisashi Iwakuma are not going well and the two sides are far apart on a deal. Supposedly, the A’s are offering a deal of about fours year, $15m, while Iwakuma’s side is looking for about $15m per year. Barry Zito money, to use a particularly poor comparison. Shinya Tsuruta of Chunichi Sports puts negotiations at three years, $20m, which sounds a lot more reasonable.

The news broke yesterday in Japan, while I was taking a day off from writing. Sponichi had the first coverage of the story that I saw, and called the idea that Iwakuma might remain with Rakuten a “worst case scenario.” Tsuruta also pointed out that Iwakuma will take part in Rakuten’s Fan Appreciation Day on the 23rd, though his participation is qualified with the quote “it’s just as the words say, an event to show appreciation to the fans.” But the idea he could stay in Sendai is picking up steam. Iwakuma was signed for 2011 at 300-400m yen ($3.6-$4.8m), so I assume he would play for Rakuten under the terms of that contract should he and the A’s fail to work out a deal.

What no one seems to be saying is that Iwakuma is leaving a lot of money on the table in pursuing the posting route to the Majors. The posting system, by definition, assigns the player’s negotiating rights to a single team, and a large posting fee acts as a dis-incentive for the team to sign the player to a large contract (or rather, the posting fee is only viable if the player can be signed for a below-market rate). If Iwakuma were to return to Rakuten for 2011, barring injury he would be eligible for international free agency after the season. On the open market, I would expect him to command somewhere between $8m and $12m per season, for about three years. So in the end it will be up to Iwakuma to decide if getting to the Majors one year sooner is worth it.

Two weeks ago, when I asked readers at my other job to help me generate a list of new sukketo candidates, I noted the need for two new third baseman in NPB 2011. I specifically had Rakuten and Hiroshima in mind when I wrote that, and both teams added a player to man the hot corner today.

Rakuten opened up third base early in the off season, when they parted ways with veteran Norihiro Nakamura. Nori was part of an anemic Rakuten offense that finished last in runs in 2010. Though his .266/.329/.397 line was an improvement from his dreadful .222 performance in 2009, it was still an obvious position to upgrade. Enter Akinori Iwamura. Rakuten officially announced their signing of Aki on the 17th. Sanspo is calling the deal a two-year, 400m yen ($4.8m) pact, while Sports Hochi says that it includes incentives and an option year that could make it a three-year, 1bn yen ($12m) deal. That’s a bit more than I would have expected Aki to command, but Rakuten has money to spend with Hisashi Iwakuma and Nori coming off the books, and Iwakuma’s posting bounty being added to the income side of the ledger. And obviously Aki doesn’t count as a foreign player, so Rakuten keeps their roster spots open to pursue more bats (Wladimir Balentien? Edit: Nope, he’s joining Yakult).

Meanwhile down in Hiroshima, the Carp are closing in on signing Chad Tracy. The Chugoku Shimbun reported that the Carp were finishing up their inquiry with MLB on Tracy on the 16th, but it seems like this deal will happen. The Carp have relied on foreign players such as Scott Seabol and Scott McClain at third base since losing Takahiro Arai to free agency a few years ago, but I didn’t expect them to go after a guy with Tracy’s level of MLB experience. The Chugoku Shimbun called him the player with the most MLB experience that Hiroshima has ever imported, and I’d have to agree with them on that. Playing Tracy at third and Kenta Kurihara at first should be a big improvement at the plate and in the field over the experiment of Kuri at third and Justin Huber at first last season.

With the departure of Edgar Gonzales, we may see Yomiuri add a utility guy that can handle some third, but aside from that, I think every NPB team has their third baseman for 2011.

Alright, here we go.

Hanshin is hanging on to pitcher Randy Messenger. The news that Hanshin wants keep him broke over the weekend, and I heard from a reliable source on Monday that the two sides have agreed to terms for next season. Messenger didn’t light up the Central League in year one, but he’ll remain in the picture for both bullpen and rotation innings in 2011.

In the same Sanspo piece, it was reported that Taiwanese righty Kai-Weng Jeng has agreed to a deal for next season that will pay him 10m yen. Jeng signed out of a Taiwanese college in 2009.

In older news, Hanshin announced a few weeks ago that they will not offer Casey Fossum a contract for 2011. No word yet on Jason Standridge.

According to a reliable baseball source, Darrell Rasner has agreed to terms with the Rakuten Golden Eagles on a contract for next season. My source indicated that it’s a one-year deal with a team option for 2012. I spoke with Rasner’s agent, Matt Sosnick of Sosnick Cobbe Sports, and he was able to confirm the agreement.

Rasner bounced back from a rough debut season to put up 152.2 serviceable innings in 2010. With the impending loss of ace Hisahi Iwakuma, Rakuten will look to Rasner to provide stability as a mid-rotation innings eater.

With the season over for more than half the teams now, we’re seeing the tryouts begin. Lots of outside-the-boxing going on here:

• Orix is looking at Venezuelans Luis Rodriguez and Victor Garate, both of whom have MLB experience. Garate is a 25 year-old lefty who has done well in 2A, but only reached 3A in 2010. Rodriguez is a 30 year-old infielder who bounced between the Majors and Minors between 2005-09, and spent last season on the White Sox’ 3A team. Orix had four Venezuelans on their roster last year, but management commented that it’s just a coincidence.
• Rakuten brought in long-time US-based Indy Leaguer Travis Garcia for a tryout, but passed on signing him. Garcia has had some success in Indy ball but it’s not clear that he was active in 2010.
• Yokohama brought in four pitchers for tryouts: 2A righty Clayton Hamilton and Indy Leaguers Jeff Ridgway, Brandon Mann, and Joseph Newby. Yokohama has had a hard time fielding a respectable pitching staff over the last several years, but I don’t think they’ll find the answer here. The pitchers in this batch are mostly in their late 20’s and haven’t had much success in the upper minors.
• Hanshin worked out Venezuelan pitcher Robert Zarate a couple weeks ago. Zarate has three years of rookie ball experience under his belt, and pitched last year in the Independent BC League.

Of the guys listed in this post, only Rodriguez is a typical 4A type. We’ll see if any of them actually winds up signing contracts, but it looks like a trend of at least considering less-established players is emerging. The recent low-budget success of guys like Tony Blanco, Wirfin Obispo, Brett Harper and Francisco Caraballo have  shown that sometimes these kinds of moves can work out.