NPB Tracker

Two Players

One way or another, Stephen Strasburg is going to make history. He’ll either sign with the Nationals for a record-setting bonus, or he won’t and something unprecedented would happen. The idea of Strasburg going to Japan in an attempt to attain free agency was floated and quickly discredited, and rightfully so. The details of why it wouldn’t work have been thoroughly documented so there’s no point in rehashing them here, so it’ll suffice to say that Strasburg is unlikely to get the contract that Scott Boras is seeking from a more restrictive NPB system.

Last week we got the news that Texas Rangers draftee Tanner Scheppers is also considering Japan. Unlike Strasburg, we have some evidence that Scheppers is actually taking action to pursue Japan — he apparently has a work out scheduled for “at least half a dozen NPB teams” (hat tip to John Brooks). Scheppers is a little different from Strasburg — he isn’t nearly as highly touted, he was drafted and unsigned last year by Pittsburgh, and he’s spent the last season playing for the St. Paul Saints, with guys like current Hanshin Tiger Craig Brazell. Scheppers was also drafted from a professional league, so the Rangers get until next year to sign him. Still, if Scheppers’ goal is simply to get a bigger bonus out of the Rangers, a move to Japan is unlikely to achieve his desired result.

Two Other Players

It’s worth pointing out that Strasburg and Scheppers aren’t really in uncharted territory here. In 2002, Cincinnati Reds draftee Mark Schramek tried out with the old Orix Blue Wave after failing to draw an offer he was happy with. Gary Garland recalled the Schramek story in an editorial when the idea of Strasburg to Japan idea was first floated:

I got on the imaginary phone in my head and dialed up Mr. Peabody to ask him to lend me his wayback machine. I set the controls for the heart of the 2002 season, where I came upon one Mark Schramek, who had just been drafted in the first round out of the University of Texas at San Antonio as an infielder by Cincinnati. The Reds, not being entirely forthcoming with the readies that Master Schramek had his heart set on, decided to journey to Japan and contemplate a season with the Orix Blue Wave as leverage to squeeze more money out of the historic Ohio nine. Orix later responded to Schramek’s overtures by demanding that he sign a nine year contract with them. This was pro forma, as Orix was not happy being used as an “ateuma (that is, a horse that is used to get a stud horse all hot and bothered in preparation to be bred with another mare in hopes of producing successful horse racing offspring)” and basically offered Schramek a deal they knew he would refuse.

Schramek went on to have a forgettable four-year run in the minors, never advancing beyond 2A.

A guy that actually kind of made it work was Matt Randel. Randel was not a prospect of even Schramek’s caliber, but  managed to get an NPB contract, and made a few appearances in Japan before having a couple of respectable seasons in Korea. The following summary is taken from the BR Bullpen:

Matt Randel is a highly unusual American pitcher in that over 80% of his baseball career has been in Asia.

Randel was an 84th-round pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1995 amateur draft. He went on to college instead of signing, but dropped out. He got his big break in 1999 when he tried out for the Daiei Hawks and was signed. He allowed hits to 2 of the 3 batters he faced for Daiei in 2000.

Randel next was picked up by the Fort Worth Cats, going 4-5 with a 3.05 ERA in 2002. Had he qualified, he would have been among the Central Baseball League leaders in ERA.

The Yomiuri Giants signed Randel after his stint in Texas and he was 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in 3 games for them in 2003. The next year, the 27-year-old was 3-2 with a save and a 5.45 ERA in 24 games, his busiest season in Japan. He did strike out 42 batters in 39 2/3 innings.

After leaving Japan, Randel caught on with the Doosan Bears of South Korea. He debuted in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2005 with a 12-7, 3.25 record despite allowing 163 hits in 149 2/3 IP. In 2006, the Doosan hurler posted a 16-8, 2.95 record.

Randel’s salary was unlikely to be much higher than the league minimum for any of the time he spent in Japan. The Hawks made a few other international signings around the time they had Randel, notably Anderson Gomes.

So we have some anecdotal evidence showing that NPB teams are unlikely to partake in money games with blue-chip prospects, but will perhaps take on lower-risk, lower-reward guys. It would be great to see more international prospects developed in Japan, and there are some likely some prospects who profile well to the opportunites Japanese and Asian baseball can offer, but that won’t be the blue chip guys.

As Ryo posted on Twitter yesterday, the Red Sox have called Junichi Tazawa up to the MLB team. He promptly took the loss in Boston’s 15-inning defeat to the Yankees, giving up a walk-off homer to Alex Rodriguez.

Boston used three Japanese pitchers in the game — Tazawa, Hideki Okajima and Takashi Saito; and another, Ramon Ramirez, who has NPB experience.

I’ve written about Tazawa extensively on this site, including this early scouting report-ish post, a deeper analysis of reasonable expectations for him, and an interview with Portland sports writer Kevin Thomas on his progress.

Looks like the Cardinals have cut bait on lefty Katsuhiko Maekawa. Maekawa was ineffective in 39 3A innings, walking 32 batters against 33 strikeouts.

The Cards pulled Maekawa off the scrap heap after an uninspiring career in Japan and problems with the law.

Junichi Tazawa is getting his first start at Fenway Park — though it might not be what you think. According to Sponichi, Tazawa will get the call for Pawtucket in Futures at Fenway, a 3A game the Red Sox hold annually at the MLB stadium. The game will be on August 8.

Tazawa was quoted as saying, “being able to pitch at Fenway Park will be a good experience. I’ll probably be nervous but I’m looking forward to it”.

According to multiple sources out of Japan, Junichi Tazawa has been promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket and will make his first appearance with the team on July 29. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a September MLB call-up.

You can read up on Tazawa’s time in Double-A here.

Yu Darvish’s Pitching Bible has been on sale in Japan since last week.

The 84-paged full-color book features a special interview, demonstration of his breaking ball and off-speed pitches, and interviews by his former pitching coach, trainer, and catchers. His history will be revealed in depth and the results of the survey conducted to 50 current NPB players regarding his number one pitch will be presented.

The content of the book can be seen here. As mentioned before Yu Darvish will appear on CNN and he is taking the next step in marketing himself; having become one of the best pitchers in recent years. I am not sure how many of his “secrets” will be revelead in this book, but this shows some confidience in letting the nation know that he is not scared to present what he is made of to the whole country or maybe in his case, to the world.

Yu Darvish will appear on CNN’s interview program, “Talk Asia“. The interview was already filmed in Sapporo Dome during June and will be shown sometime in September. Aside from Darvish, the only other Japanese baseball player to appear on the show is current New York Yankee Hideki Matsui and Darvish will be the first present NPB player to get the call.

CNN staff states in an interview by Houchi Shimbun, “He is a pitcher not only noticed in Japan, but the world is keeping an eye on him. We are planning to not only introduce his baseball background, but his entire lifestyle of growing up half Iranian and half Japanese.”

Darvish has already made his debut on the field at the world stage participating in the Beijing Olympics and the World Baseball Classic. Now it’s time for him to reveal his character and personality off the field to the whole world.

このブログを読んでくれている方々は、高い確率でキース・ローさん(Keith Law)の事はご存知かと思います。キースさんは長年ベースボール・プロスペクタス、そしてトロント・ブルージェーズで経験を積み、現在はESPNのScouts Inc.のリードベースボール・アナリストとしてご活躍されています。キースさんはお忙しい中ダルビッシュ有投手と2009年にワシントン・ナショナルズによってドラフト１位選択されたステーブン・ストラスバーグを比較するべきいくつかの質問に答えてくれました。

NPB Tracker：ストラスバーグの球種はダルビッシュに比べるとどうですか？

Keith Law: ダルビッシュの方がストラスバーグに比べて見せ球を多く持っていて、四つの球種を持っていますが春の期間は二つしか主に使っていませんでした。

NT: どちらの投球フォームを好みますか？

KL: ストラスバーグですね- 簡単でバラつきがない – ですがまっすぐな彼の腕のふりの速さは予想できない部分もあります。 我々はあれだけ速い球をあれほどの腕のふりの速さで投げる先発投手に触れた経験はあまりありません。

NT: 二人のうちの一人を今年中にメジャーリーグのローテーションにいれるとしたらどちらですか？

KL: どちらでも間違った答えにはならないと思いますが、高いレベルの相手との経験値を踏まえて私はダルビッシュを選びます。

NT: どちらの方に今後の可能性を感じますか、それは何故ですか？

KL: 良い質問ですね、その答えについては私も行ったり来たりという状態です。ストラスバーグの直球とカーブのキレの方がダルビッシュの決め球二つを上回ると思っていますので、ストラスバーグを取ります。

NT: キースさんありがとうございました。

If you’re reading this blog, there’s a high probability that you’ve heard of Keith Law. Keith is a veteran of Baseball Prospectus and the Toronto Blue Jays’ front office, and currently the lead baseball analyst for ESPN’s Scouts Inc. Keith took the time to answer a few questions on how Yu Darvish compares to Washington Nationals draftee, Stephen Strasburg.

NPB Tracker: How does Strasburg’s repertoire compare to Darvish’s?

Keith Law: Darvish shows far more pitches than Strasburg, who has four but spent most of the spring using just two.

NT: Who do you like better mechanically?

KL: I would say Strasburg – he’s easier and cleaner – although the sheer arm speed puts us into uncertain territory with Strasburg. We have little experience with starters who throw that hard and get their arms going that fast.

NT: If you had to choose one of the two pitchers for an MLB rotation this year, who would it be?

KL: I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here, but I’d take Darvish, given his experience facing a higher level of competition.

NT: Which of the two has the higher upside, and why?

KL: That’s a good question and I have gone back and forth on this. I think Strasburg’s fastball and hard curve rate well ahead of Darvish’s top two pitches, so I’d take Strasburg.

NT: Thank you Keith.

日本語訳

The 37th Annual USA vs. Japan Collegiate All-Star Series will take place in Japan from July 12-16.

July 12th: Botchan Stadium (Matsuyama),12pm
July 13th: Tokyo Dome (Tokyo), 6pm
July 14th: Kleenex Miyagi Stadium (Sendai), 6 pm
July 15th: Tsuruoka Dream Stadium (Tsuruoka), 6pm
July 16th: Meiji Jinguu Stadium (Tokyo), 6pm

※All dates and times are in Japan Standard Time

The US National Team was selected after ten days of trials that included intersquad games and practices. The team consists top non-draft-eligible college players in the United States including 1 junior, 14 sophomores, and 7 freshman players including Trevor Bauer (UCLA) and Kolton Wong (University of Hawaii), who were on the Freshman All-America Team.

The stars of the Japan national team is junior right hander Yuuki Saito (Waseda University) and senior Kazuhito Futagami (Hosei University) who was the MVP in the recent All Japan University Tournament. Seven seniors, who will be eligible for the upcoming draft, will be included in the squad.

Tickets still remain and details will be listed on the All Japan University Baseball Federation website.  Notable past MVPs from this five game series include current Colorado Rockies Todd Helton (1993) and Huston Street (2003), current Yomiuri Giant Yuya Kubo (2001) and current Chiba Lotte Marine Shouitsu Oomatsu (2004). Japan won the last series, 3-2, in the 36th Annual USA vs. Japan Collegiate All-Star Series, played in the United States in 2007.