NPB Tracker

Koshien wrapped up yesterday with a wild finale. If you missed it live, you can still check it out in the Justin.tv archives. Standard justin.tv url-tweaking applies. On to the links…

Japanese Articles:

• Nikkan Sports reports that over 1000 spectators were on hand to see Hideki Irabu’s Kochi debut, but no one in attendance happened to be an NPB scout.
• I’ve seen some variation on this, but I’ll go with Nikkan Sports again: eight of the 12 NPB teams reportedly intend to make Yusei Kikuchi their first pick in this year’s NPB draft. For more on how the NPB draft works, please see our primer on it.
• The swine flu appears to be back in business in Japan. Five Chunichi Dragons, including players and team personnel, have come down with the swine flu. Orix has banned jet balloons once again in an effort to prevent the further spread of the flu.
• Orix LOOGY Tsuyoshi Kikuchihara has qualified for domestic free agency.

English Articles:

• Goro Shigeno live-blogged yesterday’s Koshien final. Despite losing, Nihon Bunri put a great never-say-die effort.
• With Koshien over, Japan will send a team of high school all-stars to Compton, CA for a three-game series against US all-stars. Gen has the Japanese roster, and before you ask, no Yusei Kikuchi will not take part, ostensibly due to his back injury.
• Toshiya Sugiuchi struck out 15 Nippon Ham Fighters on Sunday and has quietly put up another excellent season.
• I’m no Deanna, but I’ve travelled a bit and taken a few pictures. I decided to share a few of the better ones as desktop backgrounds. Give ’em a look if you’re interested.

Just when we thought the swine flu epidemic was behind us, and NPB teams even resumed the use of jet balloons, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters caught the bug. Five players and staff were infected with the flu, and as a precaution every player and staff was checked. Six additional players were diagnosed with a slight fever and the team decided to let those players rest until they recover.

Three of the players who are thought to be infected with the flu are Termel Sledge, Shota Ohno, and Naoki Miyanishi. The six additional players diagnosed with fever symptoms were some of the main members of the team including CA Shinya Tsuruoka, INF Eihichi Koyano, INF Tomohiro Nioka, OF Yoshio Itoi, LHP Tomoya Yagi and RHP Kazumasa Kikuchi.

The team is currently in first place in the Pacific League with a seven game lead, but losing the core of the team for an extended period of time could be a problem. Top prospect Sho Nakata will be getting another opportunity with the Fighters due to the absence of these players. If he makes the most out of this opportunity, the Fighters might have an X-Factor going into the playoffs.

My posts (1, 2) on flaws with MLB draft (and by association, the NPB draft) elicited some interesting and occasionally impassioned responses.

After writing those original posts, I came across some interesting ideas put forth by writers whom I read regularly. Here are a couple of the more interesting ones:

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus speculates that we might see a more controlled draft in the future:

Said one exec, “Look, Bobby Abreu can’t find a job and then signs for $5 million. While 16-year-old are getting signed off sandlots in the Dominican for $3 and $4 million? That’s the kind of thing that’s going to get the union going,” he added, while predicting than during the next bargaining session, once the players figure out what they want, them giving into financially harnessing the signing system for both draftees and international players will be what they use for leverage.

There are also some indications that both sides might not be willing to wait for the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, as multiple sources have indicated that the reason for Bryce Harper’s early entry into college in order to be eligible for the 2010 draft revolves as much around his desire to sign within a system with no limits, rather than being subject a more controlled draft that could be in place sometime down the road.

Jim Allen of the Daily Yomiuri seems to favor more of a universally free system:

[Junichi] Tazawa was able to choose the club he thought was the best fit for him. A Japanese who aspires to take his game to the highest levels here has to negotiate with the team assigned to him through NPB’s draft. By going to America, he could choose from among different options.

Draft apologists say the system is necessary to maintain competitive balance, which it has. But its purpose from Day 1 was to cheat amateurs of the right to sell their own services to the highest bidder.

In most markets, this would be considered contemptible. It’s an indictment of the baseball business that depriving people of their rights is standard operating procedure in MLB and NPB and acceptable to the fans.

Commetor Crawdad of the Orioles Hangout, had my favorite response to my original post:

What might work better would be that teams pay into a draft bank. The bank receive money in a progressive format where teams that take in more money than others pay more to it. Each team is allotted 35 slots and those slots have a cost fixed to them that decrease.

For instance:
1 slot at 5MM
1 slot at 2.5MM
1 slot at 1MM
1 slot at 0.5MM
1 slot at 0.3MM
15 slots at 0.05MM
15 slots at 0.015MM

Players can sign with any team and if a player exceeds the slot in terms of MLB performance, MLB pays dividends out to the players until they reach arbitration.

So there is impetus for change and ideas being articulated. I hope we see a more free, fair system sometime in the future.

Watch live video from Welcome to http://npb.club.tw/ on Justin.tv

Or if you want to watch later…

NPB has started the process of implementing video reviews for homeruns. The reviews took place in the home ballparks of the Central League teams on August 11th, leaving only two stadiums actually testing the video reviews due to the Hanshin Tigers vs. Chunichi Dragons game being played at Kyocera Dome (Koshien is in use for high school baseball).

The video reviews for now will not directly affect the game and will be a learning process for the umpires to smoothly implement the steps of reviewing a homerun without slowing down the game. The official time table for introducing official video reviews has not been confirmed yet. Hidetoshi Kiyotake, president of the Yomiuri Giants states, “Testing it this year, attempting a trial run in spring training games, and installing officially from the start of the 2010 is ideal.”

MLB had its road to implementing the video reviews and it has been a smooth process, so it was a matter of time until the NPB tries attempting the video review to get the right calls on close home runs.

I captured some justin.tv footage of Koshien from the other day. You can check it out here.

The difference in the philosophy of pitch counts in the MLB and the NPB is an area where pitchers from Japan need to adjust when they make the jump to the big leagues. The nature of pitch counts remains a hot topic around MLB and the topic has been addressed recent in interesting articles such as The countdown to 100 pitches by Tim Kurkjian and Pitch counts an overrated stat by Hal Bodley.

100 pitches is acknowledged as the magic number around the league and younger pitchers are protected by organizations from an early stage at their career. Even though some NPB managers have implemented the 100 pitch count philosophy it is not rare to see pitchers go the distance in an effective outing surpassing the magic number. Recent outings from Yuuki Karakawa throwing 153 pitches (9.0 innings, 9H, ER) and Naoyuki Shimizu (7.2 innings, 11H, 4ER) pitching 144 pitches illustrates how teams and players are not shy about increasing their pitch counts.

The difference in the philosophy of pitch counts between the two countries comes from number of reasons, of which I will only touch on a few. The beauty of finishing the game as a starter is indoctrinated from an earlier stage, especially dramatized in the National High School Tournament at Koshien Stadium. The legendary three days at the Koshien Tournament for current Boston Red Sox Daisuke Matsuzaka has been well publicized here in the United States with his 17 inning, 250-pitch complete game followed by a relief appearance the next day and his no-hitter performance in the final of the tournament. It will be interesting to see how the pitchers in the Koshien Tournament evolve with the number Major League-minded players increasing in the Land of the Rising Sun.

Another difference between pitchers in the two leagues is how much pitchers throw during spring training, before the season starts. MLB pitchers tend to pitch every other day or have a routine schedule throwing from the mound to prepare for the start of the season. However in the NPB, there are pitchers who start the camp in full-mode, throwing 100 to 200 pitches from the mound on a given day and coming back the next with even more. Throwing a large amount of pitches before the season starts results in a routine for the pitchers and that makes it easier to throw over 100 pitches during the season.

The last point to make here is the difference in the schedule and number of games. NPB pitchers will typically make fewer starts over the course of the season than MLB pitchers, who spend the longer season of traveling around a country that is several times bigger than Japan. That requires the teams to schedule stretches with 20 straight games, compared to NPB which has a more flexible schedule with more off days. Then there are times when teams can have extra inning games which last until a winner is decided, as opposed to  NPB, where games end in a tie after 12 innings. These are practical differences that affect the usage of pitchers in each country.

Japanese pitchers coming over to the MLB need to adjust to the philosophy of pitch counts here in the States, but that is obviously not the easiest thing to do as we all know that routine is important for an athlete. Coming to a different country and then adjusting to a new routine is something that only certain players can do, looking at the results from past players. Even for a pitcher such as Yu Darvish, hyped as the next big star if he ever makes the jump, adjusting to the new routine will be the key for him. So far in 2009, he has pitched a total of 153 innings in 19 total starts averaging 8.05 innings per game. He has thrown seven complete games including two shutouts and you rarely see him leave the mound before hitting 100 pitches.

As long as the nature and philosophy of pitch counts differs in the two countries, adjustments will be required for NPB veterans jumping MLB and both sides need to be aware of that reality in order for both sides to succeed.

The Hanshin Tigers will be looking to expand their player search to the Dominican Republic, where opponents such as the Chunichi Dragons and Tokyo Yomiuri Giants have had recent success finding sukketo. The Tigers have had trouble with their recent sukketo acquisitions and will revamp their international scouting in hopes of finding the next Tony Blanco (Chunichi) or Wirfin Obispo (Yomiuri).

Adding younger players from the Dominican will be a cost effective strategy in the long-run, as Wirfin Obispo was signed as an ikusei player earning close to the league minimum. Developing ikusei players could allow the Tigers to avoid spending hundreds of thousands to millions to a risky veteran players, only to have them fail to meet expectations. Kevin Mench is a recent example of this.

The Tigers have already researched the strategy of their rival teams and they have been sending scouts to the United States for next season. If they decide to go the Chunichi way of developing players, the Tigers might be sending players to the Domican Winter League. In recent years, the Tigers have been sending their young players to the Hawaii Winter League, but since the league dissolving the Dominican Winter League would make sense as an alternative.

Another strategy for investment is developing a Tigers Academy similar to the one Hiroshima has developed, or  strengthen an existing relationship with by investing in its facilities and operations. The Tigers had attempted to build a path in Dominican Republic with their acquisition of Esteban Yan in the 2006 off-season. The Tigers should be in search of new ways to compete and not fall into the vicious circle that kept them in a ten year drought of lower-division finishes in Central League between 1993 and 2002.

Looks like Hideki Irabu is planning on hanging around beyond this season. According to Sponichi, the big righty is looking to continue his comeback in Japan and could join an independent league team as soon as September, after his Golden League season is over.

Irabu has put up a seemingly respectable 3.87 era in eight Golden League starts, and shown a fastball that has reportedly reached about 93mph with a hard forkball. Word is that his right knee, which caused him to retire in the first place, also isn’t bothering him.

Irabu’s agent, Don Nomura, has reached out to NPB teams including Irabu’s former teams Lotte and Hanshin, and Nomura’s stepfather’s Rakuten. An anonymous representive from an un-named team was quoted as saying “he wasn’t a match for the points we need to improve, but I felt his drive”. NPB has a player acquisition deadline of July 31, which essentially closes the door on him playing with an NPB club this season.

It’s interesting to see Nomura in the news again. Nomura has faded out of the spotlight in recent years, but he was once a Scott Boras-like figure who played a central role in bringing Irabu, Hideo Nomo, and Alfonso Soriano to MLB.

I was able to catch the last couple innings of Game 1 on justin.tv and the slugfest resulted with the Central League defeating the Pacific League, 10-8. The MVP was Norichika Aoki (Tokyo Yakult Swallows) blasting a go-ahead 2-run HR in the 9th inning. Aoki went 2-4 with a 2B, HR, 2RBI, 3RS and a BB.

Aoki has had some struggles in the first half of the season for the Swallows hitting .249 with 7HR and this performance at the break might be a postive for him heading into the second half of the season, with the Swallows hunting for a playoff spot.

Yu Darvish (Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters) went one inning and allowed two hits on 14 pitches. He did not throw the scheduled two innings as he left the game after taking a liner to the right shoulder. According to a statement issued by his team, it did not seem serious. Masahiro Tanaka (Rakuten Golden Eagles) picked up the extra work, going three innings and allowing 2H, ER with 2K facing 11 batters. Daisuke Miiura (Yokohama Baystars) earned the win throwing the last two innings without allowing a hit.

For game two, Hideaki Wakui (Saitama Seibu Lions) will start for the Pacific League and Kan Ohtake (Hiroshima Toyo Carp) will make the start at his home stadium for the Central League in Hiroshima.