NPB Tracker

Tonight I’d like to share a couple of blogs that I read, but don’t typically link to, but are interesting regardless. These aren’t daily stops for me but I do keep them in my rss reader.

English Blogs:

• I discovered Baseball Latin America earlier in the year, when it was known as the Brazilian Baseball Blog. This was a welcome discovery for me, since Brazil is a growth market for baseball and there is very little information on the topic available in English. Author Andy Loretta has broadened his focus to cover all of Latin America, but this remains the best English source of Brazilian baseball information I’ve found.
• Leon Boyd is a Canadian-Dutch duel citizen who pitches for the Netherlands national baseball team, and DOOR Neptunus in the Honkbal Hoofdklasse. He maintains a blog about his experiences playing in Europe at canadutch.blogspot.com.

Japanese Blogs:

• Torazo Yagi is an interesting guy. He was a cameraman living in Italy (Palermo, if I remember correctly), who got bored and decided to try out for the local baseball team. He made the cut and played for a couple years in Italy, then in Lithuania. He currently blogs at ameblo.jp/yagitorazo, but his previous blog has more on his time in Europe.
• I don’t have much to say about the Yokohama BayStars Rebuilding Plan blog, the title speaks for itself. I don’t know of too many NPB blogs that look at roster building.
• Another site that speaks for itself is the “New Pro Yakyu Attendance Ranking” site (in quotes because the title is translated by me). NPB attendance numbers are always a bit spurious, but this is an interesting site nonetheless.
• Yakyu Kozo a real yakyu otaku publication, and I just found out that they have a blog site. I found this one via Twitter — I have to say that I’m find Twitter increasingly useful.

Got any more that should be on this list? Let me know about ’em.

Not to be outdone by teammate Masato Akamatsu, Carp outfielder Soichiro Amaya made this amazing grab on August 22, robbing Yokohama’s Brett Harper.

Some of you may have seen my (ugh) tweet about the Yankees’ visit to Japan to watch Yu Darvish pitch on August 20. Billy Eppler and Damon Oppenheimer got to see Darvish pitch a decent game, going nine innings with 10 K’s and no walks, but allowing four runs on nine hits and ultimately getting a no-decision as Nippon Ham won in 10 innings. YouTube highlights are here, and Darvish’s velocity data is here.

Here’s a little more from the original Sponichi article. I’ll start with the headline:

ヤンキース幹部、極秘来日！超異例のダル視察

A Top-Secret Visit to Japan from the Yankees Front Office! Making an Extreme Exception to Watch Darvish

I guess the cat is out of the bag now, huh? Sitting behind the plate with a radar gun isn’t exactly a great way for Yankees execs to conceal themselves in Japan. And this is an exception? The Yanks did send Gene Michael to Japan a year or two ago, and have a full-time scout there.

I guess the “exception” talk comes from this quote, from an unnamed source familiar with the situation.

「彼らはキャッシュマンＧＭのいわば右腕で、選手の評価に関しては全幅の信頼を置かれている。２人がそろって日本に行くのは極めて異例で、ヤンキースにとって最重要事項であることを意味する

“They are [GM Brian] Cashman’s so-called righthand men, he places all his trust regarding player evaluation in them. Sending both of them to Japan is an extreme exception, so that means this is a most important matter for the Yankees.”

Another unnamed MLB source added this comment:

「松坂の金額は非現実的だが、３０００万（約２５億５０００万円）〜４０００万ドル（約３４億円）ぐらいいくのでは」

“Matsuzaka money is unrealistic, but he should go for $30-40m.”

Yes. Totally agree on this one. A lot of crazy numbers have been thrown around with regards to a potential posting fee, and I’ve always been skeptical about another $50m posting, as good a Darvish is.

Now, if you’re still with me, it’s worth pointing out that there is no indication that Darvish will be posted after this season. Sponichi helpfully pointed out that Darvish opened this season with four years, 93 days of NPB service time. Since international free agency requires nine years of service time, and a year is 145 days, Darvish started this season four years and 52 days away. That would have Darvish reaching the free agency requirements during the 2014 season.

In other Sponichi news, the Mets and Nationals also had scouts at Friday’s game. The Mets’ always-chatty Isao Ojimi said “my evaluation hasn’t changed. He’s excellent.” This article also quotes an associate of Eppler’s, saying that Darvish was “alright”. I didn’t see a quote from the Nationals.

Brett Harper has gotten off to quite a start in Japan. Though he’s cooled off a little bit (3 for his last 23, with 8 K’s), through 33 games and 137 plate appearances he’s sporting a 1.077 OPS and 11 home runs. Harper racked up those 11 homers quickly, in his first 100 or so ABs.

This got me thinking, it is the league or Harper? So I wrote a little query to get the opposing pitcher, pitch type, velocity and count for each of his 11 home runs:

Notes: 1. today’s Japanese vocabulary is “honruida”, (本塁打), “home run”. 2. the ‘0’ velocity on the HR off Kroon is the result of my data source lacking velocity data for some pitches.

I was a little surprised; I thought there would be a little bit more of a trend. Harper has hit six bombs on fastballs, and five on breaking pitches. His home runs have come against some of Japan’s best pitchers: Chen, Fujikawa, Maeada, Yoshimi, and some solid performers in Kudo, Tateyama and Alvarado.

So on the flip side, what has Harper struggled with? I wrote another query to get the pitches he’s swung and missed on. Harper has done a pretty good job of making contact, swinging and missing 62 times on the 556 pitches he’s seen this season. Here’s the breakdown:

Forkballs and sliders. Further querying reveals that Harper has seen 94 forkballs and 104 sliders, so he’s chased a large percentage of the forks he’s seen.

So going back to Harper’s recent slump, I took a look at what pitches he’s seen over his last six games:

So it looks like the league has caught on to Harper’s forkball weakness, as he’s seen nearly as many forkballs as fastballs. And accordingly, he’s whiffed on 14 of them.

Now that Harper has shown he can mash NPB fastballs, he won’t see as many of them. Harper’s early success is a great sign, but he’ll have to lay off the breaking stuff and get pitches he can drive.

I had a nice set of links built up, but it looks like most of them got lost in the Internet somewhere. Here’s what’s left:

• Yokohama pitcher Yota Kosugi took his first career win in his third career start on the 11th. That in itself isn’t particularly interesting, but Kosugi’s route to NPB kind of is. Kosugi dropped out of Asia University in his second year, and took a job making 750 yen/hour at a Freshness Burger restaurant in Harajuku. He continued to work out at his old high school, and got into the industrial leagues with JR Higashi Nihon, which eventually led to Yokohama. Kosugi’s story resembles that of teammate Yo Sugihara, who worked at a DoCoMo cell phone shop in Osaka after being cut loose by Lotte. As a final note, I think that Freshness Burger is easily the best hamburger chain in Japan, with apologies to Mos Burger.
• Yu Darvish has set a new career high for losses on the 13th, with six. Six. In each of his five previous seasons, Darvish had lost exactly five games, except in 2008 when he lost four. Darvish is now 73-30 for his six-year career.
• Toshiya Sugiuchi threw at 12-K gem over the weekend. Here it is on justin.tv: part one, part two.

Lastly, I came across this phenomenal blog post about minor league life by Mike Ashmore, who covers the double-a Trenton Thunder.

Only the most eagle-eyed readers will notice this, but I just updated the navigation bar, retiring last year’s free agents page, and replacing it with (surprise) an updated page for this season.

This year I’m going to start with a small list of players, and build it up over time. Here’s what I have so far:

International Free Agents

Hiro Kobayashi (RHP, Chiba Lotte Marines, Data): Kobayashi had a lengthy career as an underrated starter before moving to the bullpen in 2010, where he has been very effective. Kobayashi doesn’t have a power arm, but attacks the strike zone.

Chang Yong Lim (RHP, Yakult Swallows, Data): Certainly the top arm available in the international pool, the 34 year-old reliever had flirtations with MLB prior to moving to Japan. It would be interesting to see how his unusual combination of a low arm angle and velocity play at the MLB level.

Brian Falkenborg (LHP, SoftBank Hawks, Data): Falkenborg has dramatically improved his control in Japan (61:7 K:BB in 2010 as of August 12; 61:9 in 2009), and shown good velocity. SoftBank will want to bring him back, but he’ll be a candidate for MLB teams need righty bullpen depth.

Synopsis: the year of the righthanded reliever.

Domestic Free Agents

Seiichi Uchikawa (IF/OF, Yokohama BayStars): The best bat on the domestic market, Uchikawa downplayed his free agency when he qualified, saying he’d need time to think about it. If he decides he wants to play elsewhere in Japan, he’ll have the usual suitors (Hanshin, Yomiuri).

Tsuyoshi Wada (LHP, SoftBank Hawks, Data): Wada has qualified for free agency, but has already commented that “there’s absolutely no reason to exercise”. We’ll see what happens when he qualifies to move to MLB.

Munenori Kawasaki (IF, SoftBank Hawks): Kawasaki is eligible for NPB free agency after the season, but according to Sponichi, wants to hold out for a chance at MLB after next season.

Hisasahi Iwakuma (RHP, Rakuten Golden Eagles, Data): Iwakuma has qualified for domestic free agency, but is already under contract for 2011. He’s one to watch next year.

Synopsis: wait ’til next year.

Posting Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen (LHP, Chunichi Dragons, Data): Chen is an interesting case – he’s registered as a foreign player, but doesn’t have contract language allowing him to become a free agent if he chooses, as the MLB veterans that play in Japan typically do. As such, he subject to the posting system as his only means to move to MLB prior to hitting free agency. He was outspoken about wanting to be posted after last season, and hired Alan Nero to represent him, so I expect him to ask again this offseason. He’s 25, lefthanded, and has an electric arm, so I would expect him to command a healthy transfer fee.

Kyuji Fujikawa (RHP, Hanshin Tigers, Data): Japan’s best strikeout reliever has talked for years about being posted; Hanshin has insisted that Kei Igawa was an exception and that Fujikawa won’t be posted. I profiled Fujikawa way back in June 2008.

Yu Darvish (RHP, Nippon Ham, Data): The rumblings that Darvish wants to be posted have picked up this year, but then again every year there are rumors of an imminent posting and it hasn’t happened yet. I’d say there’s maybe a 1% chance that Darvish gets posted this year. He’s still about four years away from full, international free agency.

Synopsis: I think we see Chen posted, at the most.

Alright, here we go. Multiple reports have Hanshin sending their international guy, Toshihiko Yamanaka, over to the US to gather information on Japanese major leaguers and new imports for next season. Sanspo and Nikkan Sports are speculating on a couple names that Hanshin could be after. I didn’t bother to write about this earlier in the season when rumors about Hanshin being interested in Hideki Matsui again cropped up, but this time I’ll bite.

Pointing to last year’s signing of Kenji Johjima, Sanspo speculates that Kosuke Fukudome and Kenshin Kawakami could be acquisition candidates. While both players have fallen out of favor with their current employers, both are under contract for next season and I would expect them to find MLB takers. It’s worth noting that Hanshin was reportedly interested in Kawakami when he was a free agent following the 2008 season, and supposedly willing to offer him 600m yen ($6m give or take) per season. They may have been talking tall as I don’t think such an offer ever materialized. In any event, as my FanGraphs bud Dave Cameron points out, Kawakami hasn’t been as bad as his superficial numbers indicate and deserves a shot at regular MLB work. Fukudome would be a great fit for Hanshin, with 42 year-old star leftfielder Tomoaki Kanemoto a shadow of his former self, but I just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, Nikkan Sports offers somewhat more reasonable speculative names: Hiroki Kuroda and Koji Uehara. Both have contracts expiring after this year, and I would guess they have clauses requiring their teams to release them if they can’t work out deals, which would get them out of their arbitration years and into free agency. I don’t see either as a realistic target for Hanshin though; I think the Dodgers will hang on to Kuroda, and Uehara talked openly about wanting to play in MLB to give up this quickly.

Two guys that weren’t mentioned are Kazuo Matsui and Akinori Iwamura, who are both in 3A and candidates to head back to the Far East. Neither fits with the current Hanshin speculation, but either one could help Yakult, for example, who badly wanted Kaz after he was released by Houston.

Lots going on tonight, let’s jump right in.

• With Koshien underway, I’d like to once again endorse the Goro Shigeno blog as the premier English destination for Koshien coverage. Video is available online here (requires MS Windows), and since many games are played early in the day it should be a little easier to enjoy them on this side of the Pacific.
• If you’re unfamiliar with Koshien and Japanese high school baseball, I recommend checking out the film Kokoyakyu, which can be purchased on dvd or viewed via Hulu.
• As I type this, Japan is playing Korea for the bronze in the World University Baseball Championship. Yuki Saito surrendering a grand slam in Japan’s last game against America cost Japan a shot at the gold. I tried to get into this tournament, but the number of blowouts made it hard to follow. As I type this, Japan is holding a 9-0 lead over Korea.
• NPB is auctioning off signed, game-worn All-Star jerseys for charity. I haven’t looked through all of them, but Yu Darvish’s jersey figures to fetch the highest sum, with a current bid of 524,000 yen ($6130 at the current, awful exchange rate). If loyal reader EJH wants to purchase Masataka Nashida’s jersey, he’ll only have to beat a bid of 71,000 yen.
• Mac Suzuki is making a return to Calgary Vipers of the independent Golden League.

And on a final, non-baseball note, August 6/7 marked the 65th anniversary of the World War II atomic bombing of Hiroshima. I was glad to learn this morning that for the first time, the United States sent an envoy to Hiroshima’s annual memorial ceremony. I visited Hiroshima and the Peace Memorial Museum in 2003, and it was a moving experience that really cemented my already strong opposition to armed conflict. Despite the fact that the conventional firebombing of Tokyo caused more damage than the atomic bomb, Hiroshima is certainly the more striking example of the cost of war. Today it’s one of the nicest cities in Japan, and I’d recommend visiting to anyone, for both the historical significance and the civic beauty. Today is also a good day to remember Langdon Warner, the American Harvard historian who is credited with convincing the US government to spare Kyoto and Nara from serious attacks.

Watch live video from どん専2 on Justin.tv

It’s been a busy week for me… so this downtime is the perfect opportunity to introduce a couple of NPB Tracker-sanctioned pro yakyu sites.

• Takeshi Yamasaki’s recent blast off Yasuhiko Yabuta reminded me that Gen of yakyubaka.com fame has built a home run database for this season. Tokyo Dome appears to be playing to its reputation as a hitter’s park.
• I got an email last week from a guy who’s developed a batter-by-batter game simulator, which includes NPB teams. NPB and MLB teams are grouped together, so you can simulate match ups between teams from the two leagues. Here’s a shortcut to a Nippon Ham-Yomiuri simulation to check out.
• Finally, this one game my way via Twitter. A group of gamer yakyu fans (including a couple of names I recognize from JapaneseBaseball.com) have published an extremely thorough English guide to the PlayStation game Pro Yakyu Spirits. I haven’t played the game, but this looks like a great resource for anyone who wants to check out the game but doesn’t have the requisite language skills. And for the record, my favorite NPB video game is Powerful Pro Yakyu.