NPB Tracker

A look on the seven NPB players who qualified and elected to file for free agency after 2008, where I predicted them signing and where they actually signed.

Koji Uehara (P, Yomiuri Giants): Signed with Baltimore; I predicted St. Louis.

Kenshin Kawakami (P, Chunichi Dragons): Signed with Atlanta, which is where I predicted.

Ken Takahashi (P, HIroshima Carp): Signed a minor league deal with Toronto; I predicted a major league deal with the Mets. 

Ryoji Aikawa (C,  Yokohama BayStars):  Signed with Yakult; I suggested that he might get a minor league deal with Detroit. I thought I predicted Rakuten as an NPB destination but I can’t find that now.

Daisuki Miura (P, Yokohama BayStars): Stayed with Yokohama; I predicted he’d sign with Hanshin.

Toshihiro Noguchi (C, Hanshin Tigers): Signed with Yokohama, which is where I predicted.

Norihiro Nakamura (3B, Chunichi Dragons): Signed with Rakuten, which is where I predicted.

So I got 3/7. Not too bad. The last two were pretty poorly kept secrets though, so it’s more like 1/5.

Man, it is pouring here in Silicon Valley on this President’s Day weekend. Great time to do a little bloggin’

The Japanese sports rags have been publishing pics of NPB camps for a couple of weeks, but now that MLB & WBC camps are opening we’ll get coverage of those as well:

• Japan’s WBC camp has opened in Miyazaki, southern Japan. Several thousand fans were on hand to see Ichiro et al work out at Sun Marine Stadium. Here’s a pic of Ichiro and Daisuke Matsuzaka, with Yu Darvish in the background.
• Kenshin Kawakami signs his first few MLB autographs.
• Koji Uehara gets a slap on the back from O’s manager Dave Trembley.
• Kei Igawa is pitching for a job, or for a trade.

In addition to a changeup and spike curve, Nikkan Sports is reporting that Koji Uehara is working on fastballs of the two-seam and cut variety. I thought Uehara already had a cutter, but I could be wrong. According to Nikkan Sports, he’s going to try out all these new pitches in spring training exhibition games. 

Sanspo adds that Uehara arrived in the camp on the 12th and hit the field almost immediately, making over 150 throws in long-toss and mound-distance excercises. Sanspo notes taht pitchers who work quickly tend to do well in the majors (I like that trait myself), and that should suit Uehara, who threw a 1hr 59min complete game in 1999.

I’m optimistic about Uehara. To be realistic, he’ll have to learn a new league, prove he’s healthy enough to start every fifth day, and get used to not getting the borderline calls he was given with Yomiuri. But it looks like he’s making adjustments, he’s a smart pitcher and he’s clearly thrilled to be in the Majors. I’m looking forward to watching him this year.

Coming: Micheal Nakamura, Takahito Kudoh, Dicky Gonzales, Edgardo Alfonzo (maybe), Levi Romero (maybe)

Going: Koji Uehara, Makoto Kosaka, Takayuki Shimizu, Tomohiro Nioka, Masanori Hayashi, Ken Kadokura, Shigeki Noguchi

Staying: Marc Kroon, Sung-Yeop Lee, Alex Ramirez, Seth Greisinger

Trending: upward

Synopsis: Uehara is the only guy they will notice is gone, and Nakamura will mostly balance out his loss. Strong group of foreign players will be back in 2009. Of the departures, only Hayashi is under 30.

In his Japan career, Koji Uehara mostly got by with a fastball and forkball, while also mixing in a cutter and shuuto. For the start his Orioles career, the control specialist is shoring up his repertoire with a couple new pitches. The first is a changeup. “It’s got good movement. I’m going to use it in games,” said Uehara of his change. Later adding, “even if I can’t miss bats with it, it’ll be good if I can upset the batter’s timing. I’m planning to use it”.

More noteworthy, however, is Uehara’s new spike-curvey pitch of his own creation. Uehara’s never really thrown a curveball much — 1-2 times per game in Japan, though I don’t remember ever seeing him throw one. He’s calling his new creation a “one finger curve”, which he grips with his middle finger only. You can clearly see the grip in this Nikkan Sports photo of him working on this pitch. Said Uehara of the grip: “if I apply my index finger, I can’t use my middle finger and the ball doesn’t break. So I arrived at this grip.” The idea is to throw with a speed and break in between a traditional curve and a slider. Uehara also committed, “my form is still loose, but I want to use the pitch”.

Commenting on the MLB ball, Uehara said: “the Japanese ball is less slippery and easier throw. But the breaking pitches really move”.

Uehara is currently working out with Houston infielder Kazuo Matsui, and working on adjusting to the MLB strike zone and building up his stamina. Uehara heads to camp with the O’s from February 15.

I found out about Koji Uehara’s signing with the Orioles the same way everyone else did, via the incomparable mlbtraderumors.com. I think much of the Japanese media found out the same way I did, as there was a raft of reports referring to the same Baltimore Sun article that Tim linked to. 

In an ideal environment — National League, non-hitters’ park — he could be a midrotation innings-eater because he’ll allow so few baserunners. In the American League, he’d be more of a fourth starter, but would have to have some luck keeping the ball in the park to keep his ERA under 4.00.

I actually think that Uehara will be susceptible to baserunners because he’ll be around the plate so much. More troubling is that the HR ball was unquestionably his weakness in Japan, and he’s going to the most HR-friendly park in MLB. On the other hand, he’ll have two good outfielders behind him in Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, which suit his flyball tendencies. And even though he got rocked in his last appearance in the Japan Series, prior to that he put together a string of seven excellent starts. 

Uehara was one of my favorite guys to watch in Japan and I’m glad he’s finally getting the chance to fulfill his dream of playing in America. I’m looking forward to seeing him play in the States, and seeing if his trademark excellent control translates to MLB success.

Updated, Jan 2: The rumor of a final offer from the Orioles to Kawakami has been debunked — Pete Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun has the details. I should note at this point that it was only Sanspo that ran this report, other Japanese sources have said simply that Kawakami and the Orioles are “deep in negotiations“.

Sanspo has published a report saying that the Orioles have made their final offer to Kenshin Kawakami, and are waiting for a response. According to the article, the O’s have concerns about the health of Kawakami’s throwing shoulder, and are offering an incentive-laden deal. Agent Dan Evans is holding out for a higher base salary. Given that it’s an incentive-laden deal, I’d speculate that it would be a short term contract as well. The concerns over Kawakami’s arm are a bit eyebrow-raising for me; Kawakami missed time with a strained back and an undisclosed minor injury last season, but had otherwise been pretty healthy recently.

Rumors persist that the Orioles are interested in Koji Uehara as a starter, and Baltimore was the only club to show any interest in catcher Ryoji Aikawa at all.

Here’s the last piece of the player-by-player analysis portion of the series. Please check out parts 1 and 2 as well.

Part four will draw some conclusions from a big picture level.

2003

Hideki Matsui (OF, Giants -> Yankees): Turned down what would have been the largest contract in NPB history in 2000 (8 years,  6bn yen($60M)) to take a one-year contract, citing his goal of eventually playing in MLB. He eventually did after the 2002 season, and the Giants went from sweeping the Japan Series to finishing in 3rd place (71-66-3). Yomiuri had another 3rd place finish in 2004, then unthinkable consecutive sub-.500 finishes in ’05 and ’06 before finally recovering in 2007. The Giants made it back to the Japan Series in 2008, six years after Matsui’s departure. They had played in four Japan Series’ in the 10 years Matsui spent with the team (’94, ’96, ’00, ’02), winning three times. The team’s popularity took a hit as well.

So what went wrong? Yomiuri had a pretty weak strategy in replacing Matsui: they signed former Yakult 1st baseman Roberto Petagine and played him in right field, moving Yoshinobu Takahashi to center. Petagine played decent defense at first but was never mobile enough for right field, nor did he have the arm for it. Takahashi said he never felt comfortable in center, and obviously didn’t trust Petagine in right.

Things got worse when manager Tatsunori Hara left and was replaced with grouch Tsuneo Horiuchi. The Giants core offensive threats of Kazuhiro Kiyohara, Akira Etoh, Toshihisa Nishi, and Takayuki Shimizu and pitchers Kimiyasu Kudoh, Masumi Kuwata, Yusaku Iriki, and Koji Uehara all became old and/or ineffective at the same time. The team cycled through replacements like Gabe Kapler, Hiroki Kokubo, Tuffy Rhodes, and Jeremy Powell before finally assembling a team that worked in 2007.

Impact:Huge. No single player’s departure has had a greater effect on his former team than Matsui has had on the Giants. Yomiuri was probably headed for a downturn anyway, but the loss of Matsui certainly prolonged the team’s lean years.

2002

Kazuhisa Ishii (SP, Swallows -> Dodgers): Yakult posted Ishii after winning the Japan Series in 2001, and got about $11m from the Dodgers. Kevin Hodges took Ishii’s place at the top of the Swallows’ rotation and the team went from a 78-56-6 record in ’01 to a 74-62-4 record and 2nd place finish in ’02, 11 games behind the Giants. Had Ishii been around, the race might have been tighter but Yakult was still probably would have been a 2nd place team. Hodges posted a 5.90 era in 2004, and Yakult fell further.

Ishii returned to Yakult in 2006, but the team had faded into an also-ran by then. He left after 2007 for Seibu.

Impact: Medium. $11m was a good return for Ishii. Yakult may have been able to remain competitive for a little longer if he had stuck around, but that was an aging team.

So Taguchi (OF, Blue Wave -> Cardinals): Surprisingly, Orix mananged to maintain a solid record the year after Ichiro was posted, but fell from 70-66-4 to 50-87-3 after Taguchi left. Taguchi’s presence was never worth 20 games in the standings; the team’s offense tanked completely in 2002.

Impact: Low. Taguchi was actually a pretty average player in japan. He really improved his game in his time in America.

Satoru Komiyama (SP/RP, BayStars -> Mets): Yokohama dropped from 69-67-4 to 49-86-5 after Komiyama left. While the ‘Stars missed Komiyama’s 12-9 record and 3.03 era, I would say that Yokohama’s weak offense was more responsible for the team’s meteoric drop.

Komiyama didn’t perform at the MLB level, and returned to Japan after one season. Yokohama still owned his NPB rights, but refused to sign him to a contract for the 2003 season. After a “ronin” year, the BayStars finally released him and he re-joined the Chiba Lotte Marines, his original team. He’s been there ever since.

Impact: Low. Given the way Yokohama treated him, it didn’t seem that they wanted him back. They could have traded him to another NPB team and gotten some value back, so to me it was a case of the team cutting off it’s nose to spite it’s face. In general I’m a fan of Komiyama’s and I think he could have added some stability to Yokohama’s staff and mentored the team’s young pitchers. In that sense, it’s a big loss for Yokohama, but not one that I attribute to his MLB trial.

2001

Ichiro (OF, Blue Wave -> Mariners): This one needs no introduction. Orix posted Ichiro after the 2000 and Seattle won his rights with a $14m bid. I was living in Japan at the time, and it was such big, exciting news. It seemed like just announcing his move to MLB made him a bigger star than he already was.

Orix appeared in Japan Series’ in 1995 and 1996, but were a .500 team for the last few years of his tenure. The Blue Wave maintained it’s .500 record the year after Ichiro was posted, but fell apart in 2002. The team stunk again in 2003, and mid-way through 2004 announced that it would merge with the Kintetsu Buffaloes. The new Orix Buffaloes took the field in 2005 with a group of guys taken in the in the Orix/Kintetsu dispersal draft, and ranged from doormat to also-ran until their surpring 2008 campaign.

Orix’s popularity at the gate was flagging even with Ichiro, and his departure didn’t make things any better. The team suffered from the inconveniently located Green Stadium Kobe, and the proximity of the popular Hanshin Tigers. The post-merger team plays most of it’s home games in Osaka Kyocera Dome, which is a shame because Green Stadium is much nicer and was easily my favorite place to watch a game in Japan. For me, the old Blue Wave had a level of charm that the post-merger team lacks completely.

Impact: Medium. Everyone knew Ichiro was going to America at some point, and Orix did the right thing in posting him. I would argue that Ichiro’s MLB success is better for Japanese baseball than if he stayed and broken every NPB record. Orix’s competitiveness and popularity took a dive without Ichiro, but this was inevitable.

Tsuyoshi Shinjo (OF, Tigers -> Mets): Shinjo turned down a four-year offer from Hanshin to take a one-year minor league deal from the Mets. The Tigers felt no impact in the win column, going from a 57-78-1 record to 57-80-3. Hanshin backfilled Shinjo by drafting Norihiro Akahoshi, who has been the team’s center fielder ever since. Akahoshi has never had any power, but he has better on-base skills than Shinjo ever did and has won multiple Gold Gloves.

As a side note, Shinjo announced his move around the same time as Ichiro did. Though his move was viewed with some skepticism, he proved he could play at the MLB level, which helped inspire a wider range of players to make the jump across the Pacific.

Impact: Low. Hanshin built a balanced team after Shinjo left and has been competitve since 2002. Shinjo held his own at the MLB level, played in the 2002 World Series, and then returned to Japan to help build Nippon Ham into a competitive, popular franchise. I’d say this one worked out well for all parties.

That’s it for the player-by-player analysis. Anyone I missed? Anyone disagree with my assessments?

Today’s free agency updates…

• According to Nikkan Sports, Boston is preparing a 3-year, $21m deal for Kenshin Kawakami. Not an official offer yet, but the numbers sound right. Sponichi has the Braves and Brewers also getting in on Kawakami. Now that CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett are off the market we should see things pick up for the 2nd tier guys like Kawakami.

• In a reversal of previously published reports, Mets GM Omar Minaya was quoted in Hochi Sports as saying he’s basically thinking of Koji Uehara as a starter, and will negotiate with him as such. Hochi also said the Red Sox are interested, which is the first time I’ve seen them explicitly linked to Uehara.

• Ken Takahashi’s representatives have talked to about 90% of the MLB teams, and 10 have shown interest. The Mets are favored at this point, and Takahashi wants to decide on a destination by year’s end if possible.

The Winter Meetings came and went without too many significant moves — a sign that MLB management is just as stuck by the bad economy as everyone else is.

On that sobering note, there are some rumblings on Koji Uehara and Ryoji Aikawa to share:

 

• Sanspo is reporting that Texas is working on 3-year, $10m+ proposal for Uehara. Team president Nolan Ryan is quoted as trusting Jim Colborn’s evaluation of Uehara, but they need a little more time to decide on a direction. The problem is, Texas prefers Uehara has a reliever, and he’s looking for a rotation job. The Mets met with Uehara’s agent in Las Vegas, and are planning to meet with him again. NY seems to prefer him in a bullpen role as well. 
• Sponichi repors that Ryoji Aikawa is getting a look from the Orioles, who seem intent on acquiring a Japanese player this offseason. The article speculates that the O’s might want him to help attract Uehara or Kenshin Kawakami — which I find spurious as you’d rather have those guys throwing to someone who knows the league. Nikkan Sports contradicts the Sponichi report, saying that he’s inching closer to joining Yakult.