NPB Tracker

When I see Kenshin Kawakami mentioned in an American blog or media report, it’s usually this context:

The Sox also have interest in Kenshin Kawakami, a 33-year-old righty for the Chunichi Dragons who went 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA last season. Kawakami is a Hiroki Kuroda-type pitcher with a cut fastball and good curveball who could man the No. 4 or 5 spot in the Sox rotation.

I normally interpret the comparison to Hiroki Kuroda as “not as good as Daisuke Matsuzaka, but better than Kei Igawa“. In addition to that, they’re both right-handed, about the same age, and have long track records of success in Japan’s Central League.

There are a couple of differences:

1. Kuroda is a fastball/slider/splitter pitcher, while Kawakami is mostly a fastball/cutter/curveball guy. Kuroda can reach the mid-90’s on his heater, while Kawakami sits in the low-90’s and relies a little more on movement and off-speed stuff.

2. Kawakami has spent his career with a usually competitive Chunichi Dragons team, while Kuroda spent his career with the perennial also-ran Hiroshima Carp. Kawakami has had a consistently outstanding infield defense behind him for his NPB career, while I don’t think the same can be said of the Carp defense. Kawakami has also pitched in more big games.

3. Kuroda pitched his home games in Japan at the tiny Hiroshima Municipal Stadium, while Kawakami enjoyed the much larger dimensions of the Nagoya Dome.

With the above three points noted, I’d say that Kawakami is a slightly worse MLB prospect than Kuroda was last year, but let’s test that assumption with some performance data. This will be a simplistic analysis, but hopefully it will provide a better insight into Kawakami as a prospect.

Using stats from the excellent Data League site (Japanese, works best in Internet Explorer), I put together some simple comparisons to try to isolate the differences between the two pitchers. I looked at the period between 1998-2007, tossing out Kuroda’s 1997 because Kawakami hadn’t started his career yet and 2008 because the two pitchers were in different leagues.

ERA Trends

Kuroda’s DIPSera was pretty consistent his last few years in Japan, but his actual ERA varied widely, which is probably the result of an inconsistent defense. Kawakami, on the other hand, has put up consistent DIPSera and ERA numbers.

K/BB Trending

This one surprised me. Kawakami matched Kuroda on strikeout rate consistently in Japan, and bested him in ’06 and ’07. Both pitchers have done a good job improving on their control as they gained experience.

If anything, this and the previous chart point out that Kuroda was coming off a relatively poor season by his standards in ’07. Kawakami, on the other hand will be coming off a much better 2008 season statistically, though he did miss time due to minor injuries and the Olympics.

It’s easy to favor Kuroda as a pitcher because of his stuff (I do), but Kawakami has been a consistent performer over the last eight years. Should Kawakami pursue a career in MLB (and I think he will), his performance will obviously depend on where he winds up. But if he can continue to keep the ball down in the zone and miss bats with his breaking stuff, I see no reason why he can’t be an effective mid-rotation starter.

Japanese news from the usual sources for today.

Japanese Articles:

• The Indians have reportedly gotten into the Junichi Tazawa race despite Mark Shapiro. Meanwhile, Tazawa’s final tournament as an amateur begins on the 17th. He’s not hiring an agent and plans to negotiate during the tournament, and will be eligible to sign after it ends on the 24th. 
• Kenshin Kawakami filed for free agency, after pausing for a bit. “I want to choose the team that needs me the most and the team that I feel like I really want to play for”. 
• Orix is working on a contract with Baltimore AAA righty Jon Leicester, and has added Richard Hidalgo to their list of acquisition targets. Hidalgo’s name emerging is interesting — he hasn’t played in the bigs since 2005 and is currently in the Venezuelan Winter League. 
• Former “Face of the BayStars” Takuro Ishii has agreed to a contract with the Hiroshma Carp. Hiroshima also signed 4th-round draft pick Son-Hyon Shin to an entry-level contract with a ï¿¥20,000,000 ($200K) signing bonus.
• Hiram Bocachica is returning to Seibu, saying that game 7 of the Japan Series was the best day in his baseball career. 
• Softbank is going after an MLB free agent this off-season. No word on who they might be targeting, but they have 10 guys on their list. Softbank overpaid for Tony Bautista a few years ago; I hope they do better this time.

Kenshin Kawakami is poised to make a move from Chunichi, but still undecided on whether to jump over to MLB or find a new employer in Japan. Hanshin is gearing up to make the first move by offering Kawakami a 4-year, 1.8B yen ($18M) deal. Said team president Shoji Numazawa: “we don’t intend to play a money game. We’re just attacking to the extent that is possible to acquire players, even if they are looking to the majors.” The Giants made a similar attempt to lure Kosuke Fukudome last year, but their offer was only about half what he wound up getting from the Cubs.

Unfortunately I don’t really see $4.5M/year getting it done for Kawakami; maybe if they bumped it up to $7M/year he’d have something to think about. So far the Braves and Red Sox have been most frequently linked to interest in Kawakami.

The Japan Series has just ended, but the off-season is already in full swing. Here are some highlights for today.

Japanese Articles:

• Kenshin Kawakami is having a hard time making up his mind whether he wants to move to MLB or another team in Japan. My money would be on MLB, but it’s worth noting that after becoming a free agent, Hiroki Kuroda signed a 4-year deal with an opt-out clause that allowed him to move to MLB, which he later exercised. 
• Hiroshima Carp owner Hajime Matsuda has pitcher Ken Takahashi that there will be a place for him with the Carp after he retires. The 39 year-old Takahashi is eligible for free agency and eyeing a move to the majors. He’s coming off a solid year and could be a bullpen lefty for someone.
• Yakult is looking to bring in Twins AAA reliever Ricky Barrett. Barrett has never made it to the show and is a minor league free agent.
• More Yakult news: Brazilian instruction draft pick Rafael Fernandez commented on his selection: “I was encouraged to ‘stay in Japan and do my best’. I want to perform well for my friends”. 
• Mark Kelly earned an invite to Orix’s autumn training camp.
• Chiba Lotte worked out Marlins AAA infielder Chase Lambin for a spot on next year’s team, and is also bringing in Gary Burnham of Taiwan’s La New Bears for a try out.
• No rest for the weary: Yu Darvish has already begun training for next year.

English Articles:

• News from Taiwan: Yokohama is working out China Trust Whales lefty Yu-Chieh Shen. La New also played an exhibition series against the Yomiuri Giants farm team. Game 2 featured the Giants’ shockingly young Taiwanese farmhands.
• Tommy Lasorda is being awarded the Order of the Rising Sun for his contributions to Japanese baseball.

Sponichi is reporting that Texas is getting into the mix on Junichi Tazawa. The Rangers are rushing Pacific scouting director Jim Colborn over to Japan to visit the highly touted pitcher. Colborn was quoted as saying he hadn’t gotten to see any Japanese players this year due to taking over the Rangers’ bullpen coach job mid-season. Meanwhile, Nikkan Sports is reporting that Colborn will also looking at acquiring Kenshin Kawakami and Koji Uehara.

Texas had Japanese relievers Kazuo Fukumori and Yuginaga Maeda at thier AAA affiliate this year, but neither made an impact at the MLB level.

Daily Sports is reporting that Kenshin Kawakami has hired American agent Tony Attanasio, with an eye toward MLB. Attanasio is notable in NPB circles for representing Ichiro. 

Kawakami’s move to MLB has been something of a forgone conclusion, but it’s inching closer to becoming a reality. Chunichi sealed the deal for themselves by reportedly offering Kawakami a 4 year deal that included a pay cut. The rationale was apparently that he failed to win in the second half of the season. I find it incredibly hard to believe that the Dragons would do such a thing, unless they are intentionally pushing him away.

The same article I linked to above notes that several MLB teams are interested in Kawakami, with the Red Sox named specifically. The article speculates that Kawakami could fulfill a swingman role for Boston, with Mike Timlin retiring and Justin Masterson taking some turns in the rotation. Kawakami was also scouted by numerous MLB teams during the Olympics and Playoffs.

The East Windup Chronicle covered Kawakami along with some others a few months ago, and Kawakami’s 2008 stats can be found in English at JapaneseBallPlayers.com.

First bullet points collection in a couple of days… favoring English articles for this round.

English Articles:

• Congratulations to 36 year-old 3rd baseman Scott McClain, who slugged his first MLB home run for the Giants last week. McClain played four seasons with Seibu in the early 00’s and had a strong year in ’01.
• The Yankees sent exec Gene Michael on scouting trip to Japan. The usual suspects are named in the article: Koji Uehara, Kenshin Kawakami and Hitoki Iwase. I suspect Michael might have a look at Junichi Tazawa as well.
• Deanna has more great photos from an NPB minor league game on her blog, including this one of submariner Yuta Shimoshikiryo.
• Bobby Valentine was in the news again last week: first over speculation on his future with the Marines, then from his interest in managing Japan’s 2009 WBC team.
• 18 year-old rookie Yoshinori took home his first pro victory in Yakult’s Sept 06 7-4 win over Yomiuri.

Japanese Articles:

• Junichi Tazawa continues to impress both Japanese and American scouts, this time with 2 2/3 innings of perfect relief in Eneos’s 1-0 win over JFE in the Industrial League Tokyo Intercity Baseball Tournament. Scouts from the Yokohama BayStars, Yankees, and Pirates as well as Braves GM Frank Wren were in attendance. When asked about Tazawa, Yankees scout Kida commented, “please ask Cashman”.
• Orix has gone on a tear and gotten themselves all the way into 2nd place in the Pacific League. This has pleased team owner Miyauchi, who commented: “the team is clicking” (note: that’s a very loose translation).
• However, assuming Orix makes the playoffs they’ll have to compete without retiring slugger Kazuhiro Kiyohara, who intends to stop playing after his October 1 retirement ceremony. I’ve never been a Kiyohara fan, but I’d like to see him go out on a high note.
• Chunichi super-sub Tomas De La Rosa is making a play to stick with the team for next season. He’s considered a key man in the team’s run up to a playoff spot.

No gold medal for Japan in baseball — the Olympic team took a 2-1 lead into the 7th, but the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead. Kyuji Fujikawa took the mound in the 7th and gave up a run on a walk and two hits to allow Korea to tie the game. Then Hitoki Iwase got the call to start the 8th and promptly gave up a single. Manager Hoshino visited Iwase after the hit, but left him in the game only to watch him give up a 2-run homer to Yomiuri Giants slugger Seung-Yeop Lee. Iwase had to give up another hit before finally being replaced with Hideaki Wakui, who gave up a couple of run-scoring doubles to make the score 6-2.

Japan went down quietly in the 9th, ending their shot at the gold. I didn’t get to watch the game, I just followed in on Yahoo Live, so I could only read what was going on. I found it strange that Hoshino used five pitchers in an 8 inning game, pulling starter Toshiya Sugiuchi for Kenshin Kawakami after Sugiuchi give up a run in the 4th inning. And I don’t understand why he went to Iwase again despite his recent struggles.

Congratulations to the Korean team – they beat every team in the tournament and deserve their chance at the gold medal.

Going light on English today, for no particular reason:

• Janblurr keeps us up-to-date us on the Koshien high school baseball tournament.
• Deanna chats with Seibu outfielder Hiram Bocachica.

Lots of Japanese-language links to share today:

• Ten major league teams have scouts at the Olympics watching upcoming free agents Hitoki Iwase, Koji Uehara, and Kenshin Kawakami, as well as phenom Yu Darvish and stopper Kyuji Fujikawa. The Yankees, Mets, Angels, and Padres were named as teams with reps present.
• Orix is working on retaining the services of sluggers Tuffy Rhodes and Alex Cabrera for next year
• US Olympic Team manager Davey Johnson commented on Yu Darvish: “No question Yu Darvish is a big league-level pitcher. They’ve got a lot of other good pitchers together too” and Japan manager Senichi Hoshino: “I remember from my time with the Giants that he had a lot of strikeouts. He was great as a player and a manager.”
• Hanshin Tigers speedy center fielder Norihiro Akahoshi set a new NPB record by going 1930 plate appearances without a home run. He surpassed the previous record held by former Hanshin second baseman and current Hanshin coach Yutaka Wada.
• The Seibu Lions celebrated their francise’s 4000th win on Monday with a 3-0 victory over Nippon Ham.
• Rakuten Eagles ace Hisashi Iwakuma won his 15th game of the season, and lowered his ERA to 2.04 to pull ahead of Yu Darvish for the league lead.
• Lotte will suit up in their old Lotte Orions unforms for their next six games. I think the uniform has aged well — see here and here. The Yakyu Shop has throwback caps for sale.

If you’ve been reading this blog, you probably know that the top three Japanese free agents this year are pitchers Hitoki Iwase, Kenshin Kawakami, and Koji Uehara. I’ve profiled all three, now it’s time to rank ’em as MLB prospects.

Safest Bet:

1. Iwase: Standout NPB relievers have generally made successful transitions to MLB, and few have been as good in NPB as Iwase. I don’t think the struggles of Kazuo Fukumori and Yasuhiko Yabuta will scare teams away as Iwase has put up significantly better numbers than those guys in NPB.
2. Kawakami: Has been consistently good over the last 5-6 seasons, and having another good year. I think he will be slightly better than Hiroki Kuroda. Look out for a post comparing Kawakami and Kuroda head-to-head some time in the near future.
3. Uehara: Pitched in relief last year; struggled in return to rotation this year, got injured, then came back to the bullpen. He’ll probably only sign with a team that will give him a chance to start.

Highest Upside:

1. Uehara: I can see him having a great year as a starter if he stays healthy and winds up on the right team (big park, good outfield defense, preferably National League). His control sets him apart here.
2. Kawakami: I put him a shade behind Uehara because I think Uehara’s superior control could play better in MLB. I still expect him to be a solid MLB pitcher.
3. Iwase: Best case: Iwase is a solid late-inning reliever. I think he’s the most likely of the three to realize his MLB potential, but as a reliever his value isn’t as high as a starter.

Why do this now, in the middle of the season? Mostly because people outside Japan will get to see all three of these guys pitch in the Olympics this month. It also gives us a chance to watch them over the last two months of the season and see if things change.

Note that it’s not a given that all three of these guys will opt to move over to MLB.