NPB Tracker

I’m pleased to welcome our latest contributor, Randy Fuller, to NPB Tracker. Here’s a little about Randy, in his own words:

A native of San Diego and fan of the Padres since the 1970’s, Randy discovered NPB while living in Japan between 2000 and 2003. He dedicated most of his personal life to watching Giants games on TV every night and reading the sports dailies. Randy also spent much of his time in Japan traveling to several ballparks and learning the strategy and idiosyncrasies that make the Japanese game unique. He has been an enthusiast and proponent for pro yakyu for a decade and counting.

Randy has already published his first post, and needless to say, we’re happy to have him on board.

It’s been a while since I’ve done one of these. So long, in fact, that the draft post had some links from July in it. Between when I started this and now, some interesting random things have happened. Here are a few of them.

• The Orix Buffaloes promoted Freddy Ballestas to their shihaika roster back in July.
• Also in July, Softbank lefty Tsuyoshi Wada took home his 100th career win. He achieved the feat in his 200th career game, the eight fastest pace of all time and the fastest for a lefty, ahead of teammate Toshiya Sugiuchi.
• In other Wada news, Tsuyoshi reached the service time requirements for free agency on September 16 and is widely expected to make a run at an MLB contract this offseason. Said Wada: “I’m honestly happy [about reaching free agency]. I haven’t had a chance to think about it yet. [The team and] I haven’t had a detailed discussion yet, but I’ve been told I’m needed.” He looked pretty happy about the achievement.
• Hiroshima is holding a tryout on September 24th, for men aged 17 to 24 and over 175 cm tall. This is aimed at Japanese, NPB draft-eligible players.
• Sport Hochi speculates that Yokohama could release all eight of their foreign players this offseason. I suspect they’ll hold on to their Taiwanese prospects but move on from the rest.
• Whomever runs the official Orix Buffaloes Twitter feed wants to attend UEFA Champion League matches.
• A fan fell on the field during the September 16th Swallows-Carp game in Hiroshima, after climbing the outfield fence trying to retrieve a ball thrown into the stands by Yakult outfielder Norichika Aoki. Aoki commented, “he seemed pretty drunk. I’m glad that he seemed to not get hurt.”
• Journalist Misako Hida recently did an interesting interview with Kei Igawa for the Japanese version of the Wall Street Journal. Among the insights: Igawa wants to sign with an MLB organization that will give him a chance to reach the majors, he doesn’t get recognized much when he goes out, and he realized the Yankees didn’t know him when the GM and manager asked what his best pitch at a meeting during his first year.
• @mykbo had a Tweet this morning saying that Lotte pitcher Lee Yong-hoon has thrown the first minor league perfect game in the history of the KBO.

English language bonus link:

• Twins blog Over the Baggy has some interesting analysis of Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s defense in his first year with the Twins. The author makes some excellent observations. Better, I would say, than anything I’ve done in this area.

On Thursday, it was reported that Termell Sledge (34) has left Yokohama to return to the U.S.

Sledge injured his hip against Hanshin on August 20th, and although he made a brief return to the lineup in September, has decided to officially pull himself for the remainder of the season. This marks the end of the two-year deal Sledge signed with Yokohama after spending two seasons with Nippon Ham.

Injuries limited him to just 95 games this season and he managed only a .260/.316/.481 line, dropping his OPS below .800 for the first time in his NPB career. Though Sledge has stated that he would like to return to Yokohama, his 2011 performance and salary (roughly $2 million) makes it unlikely he will rejoin the BayStars next year.

Something new to add to the Yu Darvish rumor mill… Yesterday, a baseball source told me word is that it’s Nippon Ham that wants to post their ace, wanting to cash in on an obvious payday, while Darvish himself is still undecided on whether this offseason is the right time to make the leap to MLB.

Normal grains of salt apply, but this is a sentiment I haven’t yet seen in media.

Since well before I started this site in 2008, there have been persistent rumors in both the Japanese and North American media to the effect of “Yu Darvish will move to MLB this offseason FOR SURE.”

My role in this particular rumor mill over the last three years can be summarized with the below image:

To reiterate my position of the last few years, I’ve consistently predicted against Darvish moving to Major League Baseball, citing the following observations:

1. Darvish had a pattern of adamantly disavowing any interest in playing in the Majors. This runs counter to other NPB stars like Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami, who openly talked about wanting to play in MLB years before they moved across the Pacific.
2. Darvish will not be an international free agent until after the 2014 season. It doesn’t make sense financially or competitively for Nippon Ham to post Darvish until it’s clear that they have to.

If I do say so myself, I’ve been right about this so far.

But this year I’m changing my tune a bit. For the first time, I can see him getting posted in this immediately upcoming offseason. Here’s why:

1. Darvish softened his stance on playing in MLB last year. It does seem that the Japanese media has mostly shied away from directly asking him about an MLB move though.
2. Last year he admitted to having contact with big-name MLB agents. Last month MLBTR confirmed that he is represented by Arn Tellem and Don Nomura.
3. He’s in the middle of his fifth straight crushingly dominant season, and is obviously unchallenged by NPB competition.
4. He’s bulked up from 90kg to 100kg. In Imperial that’s 198 lbs to 220 lbs.
5. He’s consistently working in the upper end of his velocity range, around 150-156kmph (93-97mph) and seems to challenging hitters more. I wonder if he’s putting on a show for the scouts, since he has shown that he is perfectly capable of dominating with lower fastball velocity.
6. The number of scouts present at his games continues to increase. Logic suggests that at some point this is likely to become a distraction.
7. He’s got three full years to go prior to free agency. If Nippon Ham or Darvish can’t get the right deal, they can call it off and try again next year.

There are probably others as well, but I’ll stop with those. I don’t think any one of those single things jumps up and screams “he’s getting posted!” but they all add up to hint that it’s possible. So I can see it happening.

Based on the information we have, I’d also say there’s a chance that Darvish won’t be posted this offseason. In the Japanese press, only the sleaziest gossip tabloids seem to really delve into the details of what might be behind a Darvish move; the more mainstream sports papers usually just report on the scouts that watch him. One of the tabloids, Shukan Playboy, actually did a pretty good job piecing together different bits of the story. Their main objective seemed to be gathering evidence in support of speculation that Darvish would wind up with the Yankees, but perhaps inadvertently, they included a point that seldom comes up in the North American media. An unnamed sports writer quoted in the article said “the possibility that Farsa (Darvish’s father), who is seeking the optimal business chance, could decide ‘the the time is not right’ is not zero.” I take anonymous writers quoted in Shukan Playboy with an appropriate measure of salt, but it’s an interesting counterpoint to most of the English language reporting we get on this topic.

So I could see it happening. I could see it not happening. I don’t think I’ll be surprised either way.

It’s September 4^th, and 5 games separate first place from 5^th place in the Central League. Six weeks to go and five teams fighting for only three spots at the table come playoff time. We’re at a time in the season where every game feels like game 7; every win a step closer to the trophy and every loss two steps back. Everyone has about 30 games left and with it this packed at the top, virtually all but one team in the league is in position to grab a spot. Who has the best shot?

With or without Alex Ramirez, Yakult tends to do pretty well while living in Yomiuri’s shadow in Tokyo. They currently find themselves at the top of the standings with some breathing room, but can hardly be considered dominating. They currently lead the league in ties, and when you don’t have to chalk up a loss when you can’t record a win, that pays off in your spot in the standings. Of course the downside to that is with all of those ties, they were a bad hop away from several more losses, and 3^rd or 4^th place rather than first. It’s hard to imagine that a team that’s basically tied it’s way to first place can win it all. But for now, it seems they are a lock for the playoffs. The thing Yakult fans need to worry about is that there is no co-champion here, and you need wins in the playoffs to avoid going home. Do they have the firepower to get by Hiroshima’s pitching or Yomiuri’s offense in a 5 or 7 game series?  Does their luck go south forcing them to drop some games and miss the playoffs? If that ball happens to bounce the other way for them in the coming weeks, they could find themselves out of this thing. It’s that close. Right now they look like a playoff team. Not necessarily a championship team.

The Kyojin Factor:

It’s true in every sport, in every league, in every nation: he who has a lot of money, wins a lot of games. But money doesn’t equal luck, and you need luck to win championships. It’s not 1968 anymore, so you can’t expect to go to Vegas to lay down $20 on Yomiuri to win it all…..and win $1. It’s at least 50/50 now so if you’re a Giants fan you should win some money from time to time, and if you’re not, you might stumble upon a trophy once in a while.   As with any other year, Yomiuri has enough pitching, defense, and offense to bring home another championship. Even though they are not in first, every team in the league should be circling the dates they have with the Giants. You need to beat this team. Not only to improve your spot in the standings, but also to do what you can to keep them on the outside looking in. There’s plenty of opportunity left for every other team to push the Giants out. Is there anyone that’s man enough?

The Spoiler Factor:

On the other hand, while it’s not surprising that Yokohama is out of the race at this point in the season, the impact they can have on the playoff picture could be huge. Although the Bay Stars have a losing record against every team in the CL this year, they have matched up well against Yomiuri and Hanshin. Their 6-8-2 record against the Tigers should make Hanshin fans nervous in the six games they have left against each other. Hanshin needs better than a .500 record between now and October 16^th to escape the bubble. That’s hard enough to do against four hungry teams that are fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Now throw in the fact that they have not done particularly well against the worst team in the league that now has nothing to lose.  Play breakeven ball against the playoff caliber teams, and lose against the Bay Stars, and Hanshin will find themselves out of the picture in a hurry.

Yokohama is only 5-9 against the Giants this year, but earlier in the season they found some success, and even a brief period where they owned a winning record against their big brother from across the bay. But as in life, things tend to even up in baseball, and the Giants have taken their annual position above the Bay Stars in the rankings. Having played well against them previously however, it wouldn’t be too shocking to see Yokohama muster up some moxie and take a few more games from the mighty Kyojin. Add that to some timely wins and losses elsewhere in the league, and the Giants could find themselves in a tough spot.

The Bay Stars should be happy when they don’t have to play Yakult, Hiroshima, or Chunichi any more this season. Although they have found a way to blow out the Dragons a couple times this year, Lady Luck has mostly turned a blind eye to their efforts against these teams. We should expect the Swallows, Carp, and Dragons to continue their success against Yokohama, which will put more pressure on Yomiuri and Hanshin to perform.

As we know, predictions and forecasts in these situations tend to be worth their weight in dirt.  The only thing we know at this point is that the Bay Stars will not make the playoffs. But will they have the strength to knock anyone else out, or will they be a door mat for the rest of the season?  Do they have enough left in the tank to push the two most popular teams in Japan out of the playoffs? I guess that’s why we play. In a way, you could say that the road to the 2011 Central League championship runs through Yokohama.

San Francisco Bay Area residents — if you happen to be free on the evening of Tuesday, September 6th, I’ll be taking questions about Yu Darvish with some of my FanGraphs friends at the Gordon Biersch near AT&T Park. And if you aren’t interested in Darvish, Carson Cistulli will be on hand to provide his unique brand of baseball analysis. A good time will be hand by all, hope to see you there.

Real-life responsibilities have largely kept me away from writing and baseball in general over the last month, but I did find a few hours to add a feature to the data site: pitching lines! Each pitcher’s profile page now includes a complete pitching line for each game he’s appeared in. The caveat is that the data only goes as far back as 2009, which is when I started collecting it.

Here are a couple examples: Ryan Vogelsong, Hayato Terahara and Masahiro Tanaka. Oh, right, and Yu Darvish.

As always, if you see anything that looks wrong, please let me know.

Now that the 93^rd National High School Baseball Championship, or Summer Koshien, has concluded, it’s time to take a look at the players who shined on high school baseball’s biggest stage.

As you may recall, there were many standouts from the Spring Tournament, which was won by Kanagawa Prefecture’s Tokaidai Sagami. The spring champs, however, didn’t make it into the field of 49 finalists.

Nichidai San, who represents West Tokyo (East and West are split in the tournament), came close to titles in both Spring 2010 and 2011 (finalists and semi-finalists, respectively). They were finally crowned champions on Saturday.

Sanko, as they are known, were one of only three teams in the field given the highest pre-tournament rating by all three sports dailies polled (Hochi (Yomiuri), Nikkan Sports and Sponichi). They were prohibitive favorites and are perhaps a bit over-represented represented below. That said, they lived up to the billing and did not wilt under pressure.

Here are some of this tournament’s standout individual performers:

Kentaro Yoshinaga, pitcher, Nichidai San, West Tokyo

Where would Nichidai San be without their ace pitcher? Not basking in the glory of a national championship, for sure. The right-hander started 5 out of his team’s 6 games, pitching all but 4 1/3 innings of the tournament.

Over his 49 2/3 innings, he allowed 42 hits but struck out a healthy 59 batters. He struck out at least double digits in three games, suffering only one major hiccup; a 15 hit, 8 earned run pounding at the hands of Shimane’s Kaisei. His team bailed him out with one of their patented big innings (in this case, a 6-run 6^th) and the team advanced.

Yoshinaga finished with a 2.90 tournament ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, both improvements on his Spring tournament numbers.

Despite being tired and laboring at times during the final game, he was still able to pitch his team to an 11-0 win and hold opponents Kosei Gakuin to 5 hits.

Yoshinao Kamata, pitcher, Kanazawa, Ishikawa

My “pitcher to watch” from the Spring, Kamata did not disappoint. Unlike Nichidai San, his Ishikawa team was not blessed with a potent offense. He K’ed 10 in an opening game 4-0 shutout, scattering 5 hits. He repeated the strikeout total in his second start, scattering 8 hits in a 4-2 victory.

In his third start Kamata ran into a very good Narashino team from Chiba, who edged Ishikawa 2-1. In that game his fastball reached 153 KPH, his high velocity for the tournament.

The fireballer struck out 29 over 26 innings, allowing 21 hits and putting up a tidy 1.04 ERA. Unfortunately his offense only provided him with an equal 21 hits to work with.

Yujo Kitagata, pitcher, Karatsu Sho, Saga

Admittedly, Kitagata came out of nowhere for me. His school hadn’t been to Summer Koshien since 1984 and I hadn’t paid too much attention to the Saga Prefectural qualifiers.

Tied for the hardest thrower with Kamata at 153 KPH, his scouting report said he featured a slider, cut fastball, curve, and forkball. I noticed the fastball and a power slider, because he relied on them to mow down opposing batters.

Against Furukawa Kogyo, he allowed just 4 hits and struck out 13, but was wild, walking 6 batters. It added up to three earned runs on his ledger, but his team won 9-4.

They didn’t win their second round game, though, as Sakushin Gakuin beat him 3-2. He struck out 10 again, walked 3, and allowed only 1 earned run. It wasn’t good enough, but he seems to have a promising future ahead.

Shunsuke Michibata, catcher, Chiben Wakayama, Wakayama

Of the highly regarded “big name” catchers (Michibata, Kensuke Kondo and Shuto Takajo) that made it to Koshien, it is debatable whether the Chiben Wakayama backstop had the best tournament. He gets the nod because Kondo and Takajo had truncated tournaments; both their teams lost early on. Nichdai San’s Takahiro Suzuki made terrific plays in the field; I just don’t think his bat is on par with the others.

Michibata was part of a good offense that put up 23 runs in just 3 games. He went 5 for 15, having a nice 3 for 6 day in round 2.

Toshitake Yoko, third base, Nichdai San, West Tokyo

One might say that Sanko’s third sacker is a little overweight. Fortunately for the champs, his bat is also pretty hefty.

In the qualifying tournament leading up to the Koshien finals, Yokoo put up a .500/.571/.792 line over 7 games.

In the finals he went out and improved upon it. He bashed out a ridiculous .625/.690/.708 (15 for 24).

Shun Takayama, right field, Nichdai San, West Tokyo

Another guy whose bat made a huge statement in the tournament. He tattooed pitchers for a line of .500 (13 for 26) while getting on base at a .536 clip and slugging a silly .885. He hit two critical home runs, including one in the final game to dead center.

Honorable mention:

Sho Azegami, center field, Nichdai San, West Tokyo

The team captain played a stellar CF and was one of Sanko’s reliable offensive weapons (6 for 24). His slow start in the early rounds held his numbers down.

Hiroaki Saiuchi, pitcher, Seiko Gakuin, Fukushima

Struck out 16 in his opening game. 19 IP, 16 H, 30 K over tournament (2 games).

Author’s note: For even more coverage and a non-stop Nichidai San love-fest, please visit Deanna Rubin’s wonderful Marinerds, etc. site.

The Orix Buffaloes have announced the signing of Dominican infielder Gregory Veloz to an ikusei contract.

Veloz has four years of minor league ball under his belt, but has never posted impressive numbers.