NPB Tracker

Some context is missing here, so let me fill that in. Chen has not yet signed a contract for 2011, which is what the January agreement refers to. He will not be eligible for tenured free agency next year, so Chunichi will grant him his release. This is a big advantage for Chen as it lets him avoid the posting system.

Normally I wouldn’t bother to post this, since the level of detail is so low and there are no attributed quotes. But I figure that Chunichi Sports knows something about what’s going on with the Chunichi Dragons, and Chen has been quite vocal this offsesason.

To all who happen to be reading this, Merry Christmas!

The Orix Buffaloes have added a few arms this offseason, and have a number of interesting options for their 2011 rotation. Let’s take a look at how things could fit together.

Strong Incumbents

The Orix rotation discussion begins with an established ace and two solid arms.

Chihiro Kaneko — Orix has a legitimate ace in Kaneko. He’s been good in each of the three years he’s spent as a starter, but he reached new heights in 2010 with 17 wins, 204.1 innings, six shutouts and 190 strikeouts.

Hiroshi Kisanuki — Orix bought low on Kisanuki, and were rewarded with a solid 174.1 innings of 3.98 ball. Kisanuki’s been around for a while, so it is a little surprising that 2010 was just the fourth time he’s thrown over 100 innings, and the first since 2007. This may explain why he was strong in the first half but struggled down the stretch. If he can stay healthy again in 2011, he’ll continue to be a solid innings eater.

Kazuki Kondo — I like Kondo, he reminds me of Junichi Tazawa. His 5-10, 4.35 performance in 2010 belies the fact that he took a big step forward with a career-high 133 strikeouts in 142.2 innings. Like Kisanuki, he wore out down the stretch, and was basically done after a 144-pitch outing in early September. Kondo has established a ceiling of 140-150 innings in a season, but he’s a good mid-rotation arm.

Health Question Marks

Then we have a group of talented pitchers with poor track records for health.

Hayato Terahara — Terahara is another personal favorite of mine, and I think Orix absolutely fleeced Yokohama in getting him for Shogo Yamamoto and Go Kida. Terahara had a big breakout year as a starter in 2007, then a solid year as Yokohama’s closer in 2008, but has missed significant time with injuries over the last two seasons. If Orix can coax a healthy season out of him, they’ll have something. It’s a good risk to take.

Satoshi Komatsu — It seems like a long time ago that Komatsu went 15-3, won the Rookie of the Year award, and was chosen for Japan’s WBC team. It’s been a rough, injury-laden couple of years since then. Komatsu did make 13 starts last year, but now seems destined for the bullpen.

Masayuki Hasegawa — Getting Hasegawa for the unused Yuichiro Mukae was an inspired move, but he’s no ace. Realistically, Hasegawa’s contribution will be that he can take the ball every so often and keep his team in the game for five or six innings.

New Imports

Next year, Orix should have a foreigner taking regular rotation turns for the first time since Tom Davey in 2007.

Chan Ho Park — Park is obviously the big name here, having collected 124 wins over a 17-season MLB career. Park signed with Orix to start, so we can assume he’ll open the season in the Buffaloes rotation. There are some question marks though; he’s 37 and hasn’t worked anything close to a full season as a starter since 2006 in San Diego. On the other hand, getting more rest between starts and reduced travel might suit him well.

Alfredo Figaro — And at the other end of the spectrum, there’s Figaro. Figaro has only 31.2 MLB innings under his belt, and is still only 26 years old. Back in 2009, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs put his upside as a back-rotation MLB starter, which makes him an interesting NPB prospect. He’ll bring plus velocity and a good slider to the table.

My Rotation

Assuming health, I’d stack the rotation going into the spring something like this:

1. Kaneko
2. Kisanuki
3. Park
4. Terahara
5. Kondo
6. Figaro

Kaneko’s the ace and Kisanuki earned his #2 spot with his 2010 performance. Park’s MLB track record will probably give him the edge for the next spot, though I like Terahara better if he’s healthy. Kondo is next, and I put Figaro in the last spot because I have decided what I expect from him yet.

The catch is that every pitcher I listed here is a righty. With Yamamoto dispatched in the Terahara trade, Orix doesn’t have an obvious rotation lefty. Shinya Nakayama got a few starts in 2010, but has never been able to stick at the ichi-gun level. Another option might be sophomore Shuichi Furukawa, but he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in his first professional season.

Overall, Orix has assembled a deep group of starters. It’ll take a few things going right, but Orix could have one of the best rotations in Japan next season.

This caught my eye: Kazuo Matsui offered up some advice for Tsuyoshi Nishioka publicly in Sanspo. I’ve translated it here:

(1) The effect natural grass has on defense at second base is small. Don’t have negative preconceptions. (2) Be careful about getting spiked during double plays (3) Gather data on batters with speed.

（１）二塁守備に天然芝の影響は少ない。悪い先入観を持つな　（２）併殺時の足下を狙うスライディングに要注意　（３）俊足打者のデータ収集

Interesting. Especially that first point. Kazuo is generally thought to have made a poor transition to grass infields, but according FanGraphs he hovered around league average after he got out of New York. Then again, he did specifically mention second, so maybe he’s implying the effect is bigger at shortstop. Or maybe I’m over-thinking it.

I’ve been asked several times this offseason if Nishioka is the next Kazuo Matsui. In each instance, my answer has been the same: Nishioka is not another Kazuo; Kazuo had a significantly better record of success than Nishioka has had. If I had been asked in 2002, I would have said that of the two Matsuis, “Little” had the edge on Godzilla as the better MLB prospect. Both Matsuis really were phenomenal in 2002: Kazuo hit .332/.389/.617 with 88 extra base hits, and Hideki nearly won the Triple Crown with 50 HR, 107 RBI and a .334 BA (Kosuke Fukudome overtook him in September and finished at .343). Personally I thought Kazuo’s athleticism and all-around game would translate better than Hideki’s Yomiuri slugging. MLB expectations were justifiably high for both players, which is why Kazuo’s lack of success Stateside was such a disappointment.

So what does that mean for Nishioka? For me, it doesn’t mean anything. Nishioka is joining a good team, in a less demanding home market, and won’t have a top prospect pushing him like Kazuo did with Jose Reyes. So he’ll be in a position to focus on his main competencies of playing good defense and getting on base. If he can stay healthy and do those two things, he won’t be a disappointment.

More acquisitions to report today…

• Always-on readers passerby and DeGavph shared links showing the Orix has acquired pitcher Chan Ho Park. Park is the second Korean star Orix has added this offseason, the first being former Yomiuri Giant Seung-Yeop Lee.
• Meanwhile, I heard from a source that Yokohama has signed lefthanded pitcher Brent Leach. Leach has five years experience in the Dodgers system, including 20.1 innings at the MLB level in 2009.

Edit, December 20 AM: Corrected the details of the Lerew situation. It’s close, but not a done deal yet.

Three new sukketo players will make their way to Japan for the first time in 2011.

• Readers of this site are well-informed and have already been discussing this one, but I’ll post it anyway. Rakuten has signed pitcher Kelvin Jimenez, who spent last season with Doosan of the KBO. Jimenez won 14 games in Korea in 2010, and will be a rotation option to go with
• Softbank is close to acquiring pitcher Anthony Lerew. The two sides are working out the finer points of a one-year deal paying about 50m yen (roughly $600k). Softbank is looking for Lerew to improve the righty side of its rotation.
• Chunichi signed 1B/3B/OF Joel Guzman to a one-year, $500k deal. Comments from Chunichi’s Mori-head coach suggest that they picked up Guzman to keep incumbent 1B slugger Tony Blanco honest. Guzman was once a top prospects for the Dodgers and (Devil) Rays.

And this post features a bonus export:

• The Cleveland Indians have signed former Yomiuri pitcher Toru Murata. This signing is in the same mold as the Orioles getting Ryohei Tanaka a few years ago; Murat is a former first-round draft pick who never reached the top level in NPB. At 25 he should still have some upside left.

While there aren’t any NPB games to report on right now, the English language bloggers have still been busy. Here are some of the latest stories updates:

• Wayne Graczyk of The Japan Times catches up with the four American ex-NPB managers.
• Jason Coskrey, from the same outlet, looks at the ‘Saito effect’ going on in Hokkaido.
• Deanna offers some insight on how she’s dealing with the one-and-only Hichori Moritimo’s move to the Bay Stars.
• Tokyoswallows.com has some news (or lack thereof) on a potential sale of the club.
• Lastly, over at FanGraphs, Patrick shares his thoughts on Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Minnesota Twins’ new infield acquisition.

Got any additions? Add them in the comments.

Orix’s hot stove is heating up. Sponichi reports that the to-be-rebranded Buffaloes have begun negotiating with Detroit pitcher Alfredo Figaro. Figaro seems like he would be a good pick-up for Kansai’s second team, as Marc Hulet of FanGraphs graded him as Detroit’s ninth-best prospect going into the 2010 season, saying that “got more than enough to offer in the back end of the rotation as a fourth starter.” Back in 2009, Harry Pavilidis of the Hardball Times pointed out that he had the second best whiff-rate among that seasons rookie pitchers.

The same Sponichi report also says that Orix is near an agreement with Mike Hessman.

The bigger news is that Orix has agreed to a multi-player trade that would send lefty starter Shogo Yamamoto to Yokohama in return for pitcher Hayato Terahara. We’ll have to wait and see who the other players involved are, but based on what’s been announced so far, this is a big win for Orix. Terahara is injury-prone but has been the most talented pitcher on Yokohama’s staff over the last few seasons. The BayStars made an inspired move to get him from Softbank a few years ago, so it comes as surprise they’d move him along for a guy like Yamamoto. Let’s hope there’s more to this trade than meets the eye.

A couple of notes to pass along as we head into the weekend…

• The Hanshin Tigers have some interest in the recently non-tendered Hideki Okajima. Team director Shoji Numazawa explains, as quoted in Sansop:  “Will we look into him? Yes. Because, you know, he’s a pitcher. It’s not that we don’t have interest. But as I’m always saying, we’re not going to have a bidding war with the Majors. He’s a pitcher so we have some interest. And then there’s money and his age and things. But to say we have no interest would be a lie.” Hanshin has been done a lefty since injuries claimed the career of Jeff Williams a couple years ago. Casey Fossum wasn’t able to fill his shoes in 2010.
• The Yokohama BayStars have signed pitchers Brandon Mann and Clayton Hamilton, according to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. Mann and Hamilton have mostly toiled in the lower minors, and worked out for Yokohama back in October
• Sponichi has reported that Yakult has a basic agreement with Korean pitcher Young-Soo Bae.

If you search this site, you’ll get posts dating as far back as two years ago of me saying that NPB teams should consider Mike Hessman. It looks like that’s happening now, as Daily Sports is reporting Orix has him on their list of replacements for the apparently departing Alex Cabrera. Orix is also close to signing ex-Yomiuri Giant Seung-Yeop Lee, surprisingly for a reported 150m yen. Even with Lee, I think Hessman would be a good addition for Orix. He would give them some pop from the right side of the plate, and offers some depth at third should Aarom Baldiris falter.

Hessman is coming off a good season with 3A Buffalo, one that saw him significantly cut down on his strikeout rate and get called up to Mets in the second half of the season. Unfortunately, he hit a meager .132 at the MLB level, and at 32 looks like a textbook 4A player. Japan is a good option for him.

I haven’t done a great job of staying up to date with NPB transactions this offseason. To catch up on things, here’s my tally of who’s signed so far this autumn:

• Bryan Bullington signed with Hiroshima
• Chad Tracy signed with Hiroshima
• Dennis Sarfate signed with Hiroshima
• Jonathan Albaladejo signed with Yomiuri
• Carlos Torres signed with Yomiuri.
• Micah Hoffpauir signed with Nippon Ham
• Marcos Vechionacci is about to sign as an ikusei player with Hanshin.
• Robert Zarate signed as an ikusei player with Hanshin
• Wladimir Balentien signed with Yakult

In addition, Hiroshima added Scott McClain as a US-based scout.

This year, I published my list of picks for Japan-bound players over at FanGraphs. So far I’ve gotten two correct, Bullington and Torres. I took a long look at Sarfate and Albaladejo, but I left Sarfate off because of his walk rate, and Albaladejo off because I thought he’d get a job in the Majors. I also asked FanGraphs’ readers to suggest players who could go over, and so far that list has produced one correct prediction, Hoffpauir.