Starting Pitcher Skills
I’ve been thinking a lot about Masahiro Tanaka and how he might perform in year one of his newly-minted mega deal.
My theory is that observable skills are a better predictor of MLB success than statistics. As an example, a pitcher with good control of an obvious out pitch is a better bet than a pitcher who is good all around, but lacks a dominant skill. This might sound obvious, but the media and casual baseball conversation centers around Tanaka’s 24-0 record and 1.27 ERA, rather than his ability to suppress walks and home runs.
So, I took a look back on the group of starters that have moved from NPB to MLB on Major League contracts since I began writing in mid-2008.
| 1st MLB Season | Pitcher | Strengths | Weaknesses | MLB fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Masahiro Tanaka | suppressed walks, great splitter, good slider, healthy | not quite Darvish | ? |
| 2012 | Yu Darvish | dominant in every way year after year | The legacy of Daisuke Matsuzaka | 9.8 |
| 2012 | Hisashi Iwakuma | great splitter, groundball machine, limited home runs | injured in 2011, didn’t look like himself | 4.8 |
| 2012 | Wei-Yin Chen | lefty who at one time showed electric stuff, dominant in 2009 | had regressed quite a bit by 2011 | 4.3 |
| 2012 | Tsuyoshi Wada | decent control, decent changeup | undersized; poor fastball velocity; looked spent at the end of 2011 | 0 |
| 2010 | Colby Lewis | phenomenal K:BB ratio, good arm | was improvement in control due to him or the league? | 9.6 (post return) |
| 2009 | Kenshin Kawakami | great cutter, innings eater | not much upside beyond #3 starter | 2.4 |
| 2009 | Koji Uehara | phenomenal K:BB ratio, great splitter | injury history, could he handle starting? | 8.8 (mostly in relief) |
My first reaction is that this is pretty good group. Wada was a bit of a bust, but he was injured. Kawakami comes the closest to being evidence of my theory, as he didn’t really dominate any statistical category, but I think he could have shown more if the Braves hadn’t buried him. The rest of these pitchers have either met or exceeded expectations since moving to MLB.
This seems to bode pretty well for Tanaka, as he shows two above average pitches and dominated a number of statistical categories in NPB. We’ll see how it bodes for the pitchers who are currently active in Japan in a follow up article in the next couple of days, assuming the writing gods smile upon me.
02/02/2014 at 4:11 am Permalink
What would you have said regarding Vogelsong? He was never exactly a star in NPB and managed to have a couple of decent seasons returning to MLB
And as a hypothetical, what would you or how would you rate pitchers like Kenta Maeda
Iwakuma suprised me a bit in MLB, its not so much i didn’t think he had the talent but i thought injuries would have really taken its toll
02/02/2014 at 7:48 am Permalink
The players you selected are all at or above replacement level. What about pitchers who turned out to be below replacement level? Did none of them have similar strengths while in Japan?
It seems like you’re trying to make “observable skills” into a new metric. But other than pitch selection and K:BB ratio, I don’t see the same (or opposite, for that matter) skill strengths getting much repetition. Can you make a correlation between a specific skill (i.e. K:BB ratio) to a higher MLB fWAR?
You’ve brought up a very interesting topic. But now all I have is more questions.
02/02/2014 at 1:48 pm Permalink
Azza-san:
What would you have said regarding Vogelsong? He was never exactly a star in NPB and managed to have a couple of decent seasons returning to MLB
I didn’t think much of Vogelsong’s post-NPB prospects. He kicked around the minors in 2010 before winning a job with the Giants in 2011, so whatever improvements he made happened in the States, rather than Japan. This would be in contrast to someone like Colby Lewis, who clearly improved while he was in Japan.
And as a hypothetical, what would you or how would you rate pitchers like Kenta Maeda
That’ll come up in the follow up. He’s a little tougher to classify because his stuff is clearly not as good as Darvish’s and Tanaka’s, but his performances and health are better than Kawakami, Lewis and Uehara. He’s also younger than the latter set of guys.
Iwakuma suprised me a bit in MLB, its not so much i didn’t think he had the talent but i thought injuries would have really taken its toll
Me too. He looked spent in the second half of 2011.
02/02/2014 at 2:06 pm Permalink
Westbay-san:
The players you selected are all at or above replacement level. What about pitchers who turned out to be below replacement level? Did none of them have similar strengths while in Japan?
For this I limited the scope to starters who were successful enough in Japan to get MLB contracts. All I’ve really shown here is that that group of pitchers has mostly been pretty good.
The type of subtlety we need to see would likely show up in the pitchers (including relievers) who got minor league contracts.
It seems like you’re trying to make “observable skills†into a new metric. But other than pitch selection and K:BB ratio, I don’t see the same (or opposite, for that matter) skill strengths getting much repetition. Can you make a correlation between a specific skill (i.e. K:BB ratio) to a higher MLB fWAR?
My point was that having any standout skill is advantageous.
But there is probably some correlation at the lower rungs of pitchers. Ryota Igarashi’s best trait was his velocity, and that didn’t pan out in MLB. Hisanori Takahashi’s best skill was his screwball/changeup, and he managed to have some success with it.
You’ve brought up a very interesting topic. But now all I have is more questions.
Yep, me too.