The Theoretical Grade A+ Prospect
I’ve learned a lot about prospects from reading John Sickels over the years. John gives prospects letter grades the same way American schools do, and he’s a pretty tough grader. He’s never given an A+, but recently described what one would theoretically look like.
A Grade A+ pitching prospect would have four plus-plus pitches, exceptional command and control, a great body, perfect mechanics, no injury history, outstanding makeup, and a brilliant performance record. Again, I’ve never seen anyone like that. There is always some flaw somewhere, no matter how minor.
I think I’ve seen someone who comes pretty close to that: Yu Darvish. Yes, it’s probably unfair to throw Darvish in with younger minor league and amateur prospects, but he’s young enough at 25, and still yet to throw a Major League pitch.
Against John’s criteria, the only question marks for me are whether Darvish’s best four pitches grade as plus-plus, or merely plus, and how “perfect” mechanics are defined (Darvish has tinkered with his delivery over the years). Aside from that, everything else is there — the physique, makeup, health record and performance record.
08/10/2011 at 5:35 pm Permalink
So, IOW…
TINSTAPPP.
10/10/2011 at 10:36 pm Permalink
What is a “plus-plus” pitch? Does it mean something like 80 on the 20-80 scale? Four of those with exceptional control and all the other stuff – that’s something like a ready-made Greg Maddux or Roy Halladay (after breakout season). No wonder nobody’s seen a prospect like that….
For Darvish, as much as I like him I still wouldn’t be too sure about command and control. On NPB level it seems seamless yes, (at least statistically) but looking at Dice-K’s rise in bb numbers post-migration, I think we’ll still have to wait and see.
12/10/2011 at 10:40 pm Permalink
What is a “plus-plus†pitch? Does it mean something like 80 on the 20-80 scale?
Probably in the 70-80 range. I believe 55 equates to MLB average, and a “plus” tool would be 60-65, and a “plus-plus” would be 70-80. Scouts don’t give out 80s very often. I guess an 80 would be one of the best tools in MLB.
For Darvish, as much as I like him I still wouldn’t be too sure about command and control.
I am more optimistic about Darvish’s command, simply because he’s been challenging guys with his hard stuff this year. Matsuzaka was infuriating to watch in MLB because of his nibbling tendencies. It was probably most pronounced in his best year, when he won 18 games — he’d nibble, nibble, nibble, and then get a couple guys on base, and then start attacking and do well. He was good that year but he racked up huge pitch counts and wound up not throwing many innings.
I don’t think Darvish will have that problem. I think he has a sophisticated enough approach to pitching that he’ll figure out what he needs to do. He will need to adjust to a different ball and a new environment, so I don’t think he’ll have all six or seven of his pitches, but it’s reasonable to project that he’ll have four above average MLB pitches.