Something New for the Rumor Mill
Something new to add to the Yu Darvish rumor mill… Yesterday, a baseball source told me word is that it’s Nippon Ham that wants to post their ace, wanting to cash in on an obvious payday, while Darvish himself is still undecided on whether this offseason is the right time to make the leap to MLB.
Normal grains of salt apply, but this is a sentiment I haven’t yet seen in media.
15/09/2011 at 11:27 am Permalink
From a financial perspective, right now seems like an ideal time to go, which is probably why Nippon Ham is so eager to do the posting (as you mentioned). Both the Yankees and Red Sox are desperate for starting pitching (particularly the Yankees), and having the top two payrolls in a bidding war is exactly the set of circumstances that netted $51 MM for Matsuzaka (along with all those renovations for the Seibu Dome).
As for Darvish himself, you’ve got to wonder about the psychology of making the MLB leap. From a performance perspective, he obviously has nothing left to prove in NPB — he’s had a Koufaxian level of domination for longer than Koufax dominated MLB, and he’s already got the ring. One wonders though if it’s a matter of desire. When Matsui moved to the US, he basically traded in the chance to stand astride the NPB record books along with Oh and Harimoto for opportunity to be another Pat Burrell/Raul Ibanez-type here in the States. No shame in that — he’s had a hell of an MLB career — but there’s definitely a difference in inherent rewards between being the king of the lake versus a baron of the ocean. For someone like Darvish, who already seems ambivalent towards playing in MLB, it might be worth it to stay in NPB for career continuity purposes and put his name next to Kaneda’s as the unchallenged best.
15/09/2011 at 1:03 pm Permalink
I would call that market perspective rather than a financial perspective. Financially speaking, the weak dollar will make a salary/posting fee paid in dollars look very bad in yen.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=USDJPY
15/09/2011 at 7:11 pm Permalink
That’s a great point — I didn’t realize that the conversion rate had dipped to Â¥75 to the dollar. That’s a pretty substantial discount from where we were five years ago!
I’ve always been curious to see how the posting fees compare to the standard revenue a team will take in over the course of the year. The various sources I’ve seen suggest that a non-Giants team will take in around Â¥8B in revenue in a year, so I wonder at which point giving away the best player in the NPB is worth it from an economic perspective. The Â¥5B that Matsuzaka fetched is a good chunk of change, but that may have been a once-in-a-lifetime event, and teams may be more circumspect now. Also, just as you mentioned, the different in exchange rate now ain’t helping Japanese exports of any stripe.
How much do you think Darvish would fetch if he was posted today?
17/09/2011 at 12:54 am Permalink
Do the NYY take another chances on a pro japan baseball player at the pitching position because, their track records proves that Japan Pitchers don’t do that great in NYY like the late hideki irabu who track pitching record in NYY is 29 wins & 20 lost for 3 season in NYY, Kei Igawa who banned to Minors 2 wins & 4 lost.. Thought maybe it best if Yu Davish goes some where the pressure is real high because if he fails to lead NYY to World Series or fail in the playoff than it doesn’t look good on NYY part on getting him..
17/09/2011 at 9:05 pm Permalink
That’s two guys you listed, separated by nearly a decade. I think it’s safe to say that they can be treated on a case-by-case basis.
20/09/2011 at 8:24 pm Permalink
If you’re Darvish, do you stay in Japan for $5 million a year (nothing wrong with that) or go for 3-4 times more in MLB? He should be in the $18-20 million a year category if he makes the jump. Not a tough decision, in my books.
Also, don’t count out two other teams in the bidding mix: the Texas Rangers will lose CJ Wilson this off-season. They bid high but were unsuccessful in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes last year, so look for them to go hard on Darvish.
And the Toronto Blue Jays need pitching and are close to contending again in the AL East. Like the Yankees, they’re bankrolled by a huge cable conglomerate that also owns TV and Radio networks in Canada. The company has stated plans to make the team a centerpiece of its TV and radio content.
So look for them to be in the bidding mix as well. Darvish would be a great selling point for a team that considers an entire country as a market.
21/09/2011 at 12:20 am Permalink
It’s not something that unexpected is it? What Darvish thinks was never really clear – though he did bulk up and test two-seamers and sinkers.
But at least for Nippon Ham, their wanting to post Darvish seemed quite plain when they gave him that Â¥ 500,000,000 contract… Especially considering their payroll.
22/09/2011 at 12:40 am Permalink
No one will get $50m posting + $50m contract like Matsuzaka did, that was the market peak for NPB postings.
If Darvish goes for $25m + $25m Igawa range and signs for 5 years, that means he’ll only earn $5m/year. With the exchange rate currently, his current salary of JPY 500m = $6.5m. Chances are he’ll earn more in Japan than going through posting, in pure money terms.
Now if he waits till free agency, he should earn more. Both Darvish and the team seem to be good about his health, but he’ll definitely have more mileage on his arm if he waits till free agency.
22/09/2011 at 4:24 am Permalink
And with Nashida gone, Ham might finally have a chance to win a championship at some point. Another reason for Darvish to stick around. (Don’t go … please…)
24/09/2011 at 12:17 pm Permalink
Simon, you’re nuts. Someone will pay $150 mil. for Darvish, with roughly 1/3 to the posting team. Darvish will make $20 mil per year.
24/09/2011 at 12:27 pm Permalink
I think Yu is a once in a generation Son of the Rising Sun (even though he’s half Iranian).
Some of the comments here are delusional. Yu will go for a posting of near $75 to $100 million and then only sign for a five to seven year $100+ contract.
I think many of you are seriously missing that BOTH the Yanks and Red Sox NEED Darvish – and neither can afford to see him playing for the other (or even for the Jays for that matter). The world may be in a recession – but during the last Big One they built the Empire State Building and during this one someone will overpay unspeakable numbers for this phenom.
Have I ever lied to you before?
24/09/2011 at 3:43 pm Permalink
Simon is not entirely nuts! Somebody in the MLB will offer the money, but Darvish (my opinion) cares nothing about money other than being paid fairly. More importanly, the Fighters will NOT make money if he leaves. Yuki (why isn’t he in 2-gun) Saito can’t put baseball fans in the seats yet. Nakata is a couple of years away from being a star. Yoh as well. Even then, they don’t compare to Darvish. Let’s not forget about what Darvish said the first few years of his career. He said many times he wants to promote baseball in Japan. He wants to give Japanese kids a hero they can go watch in person.
I don’t believe Darvish is thinking about money. I do believe he’s thinking about what’s best for baseball in Japan, and in Sapporo. Hey, he’ll be a great pitcher when he’s 30, so why rush?