NPB Tracker

The NPB season is finally upon us. On Monday evening (Pacific Time) I found about 90 minutes to spend watching two games, and talking baseball on Twitter. Here are my notes from what I saw of the games.

Chunichi vs Yokohama

• The ‘Stars drew a pretty nice crowd.
• Chunichi starter Maximo Nelson looked a little rough around the edges early on.
• Yokohama starter Shogo Yamamoto can get a bunt down.
• Forkballs and low fastballs still to work against Brett Harper.
• Hirokazu Ibata has cool glasses.
• Yamamoto left a mistake out over the plate for Joel Guzman, who tagged it for the first NPB home run of 2011. Yokohama manager Takao Obana wisely brought in righty Shintaro Ejiri before Guzman’s next at bat, and he made quick work of both Guzman and Tony Blanco.
• Right after Guzman’s home run, yet another earthquake struck, shaking the lighting towers at Yokohama Stadium.

Yokohama eventually won 5-4, on a Yuta Naito walk-off hit off Takuya Asao.

Rakuten vs Lotte

• There were quite a few fans holding signs encouraging the Tohoku region at QVC Marine Field. Lotte has great fans.
• I thought the “Ganbarou Tohoku” patch on the Rakuten uniforms was a little small. Lotte wore black stripes on their shoulders.
• Lotte starter Yoshihisa Naruse was locked in early on, and had six or seven strikeouts in the first four innings. I thought he was getting some low strikes called in his favor.
• Takashi Ogino’s showed of his speed in the fourth inning: after singling, he stole second, and advanced to third on a hard fly out to left field. He then scored on a ground out to third base, though he probably would have been out if Motohiro Shima had been able to hang on to the ball. Ogino looked like he got into Hisashi Iwakuma’s head a little bit, as he seemed distracted when he was on first base.
• Kim Tae Kyun looks fatter than last year.
• Iwakuma got himself into a couple of minor jams in the fourth and fifth, but came away unscathed. His fastball velocity wasn’t great though.
• I wasn’t impressed with Rakuten’s 1B/DH duo: Takeshi Yamasaki started at first, but hisfielding days should rightfully be behind him, and Randy Ruiz looked bad in his first two at bats against Naruse.
• Just as I was signing off, Shima took Naruse deep for a three-run homer, giving Rakuten a lead they would extend and never relinquish. As great as Naruse is, his control has to be spot on, because he throws so softly that his mistakes can be very costly. Last year he struck out 192, but gave up 29 home runs.

Lotte mounted a comeback against Iwakuma in the ninth, but Justin Speier relieved him and stopped the Marines for his first NPB save. The final score was 6-4.

Other items of note from games I didn’t watch:

• Matt Murton hit a home run in his first at bat of the season
• Yu Darvish got lit up for seven earned runs in seven innings, in the worst opening day performance of his career.

Like the Pacific League, picking a winner in the Central League is tough. But for me it’s tough for the opposite reason — it’s easier to think of reasons why each of these teams won’t win. So like my PL post, I’ve ranked the teams in order of likelihood of finishing first, and listed them in reverse order.

6. Yokohama BayStars (offseason summary)

Lots of holes in lineup; loss of Seiichi Uchikawa and Hayato Terahara; thin rotation; bargain-bin foreign players; no depth

5. Hiroshima Carp (offseason summary)

Questionable rotation depth behind Kenta Maeda; great outfield defense; bullpen question marks; little established power even with the addition of Chad Tracy; but lineup could surprise us

4. Chunichi Dragons (offseason summary)

Kazuki Yoshimi injured; dominant bullpen; efficient defense; Wei-Yin Chen’s farewell season; aging lineup though with some emerging players

3. Yakult Swallows (offseason summary)

Norichika Aoki; four good starters, assuming Yoshinori’s 2010 season wasn’t a fluke; mid-lineup question marks; good bullpen; played well after firing Shigeru Takada last year

2. Hanshin Tigers (offseason summary)

Strong lineup top to bottom, despite a few regression candidates (Keiichi Hirano, Matt Murton); lots of untested/rehabbing guys in the mix for rotation spots; great closer

1. Yomiuri Giants (offseason summary)

High-powered lineup; plenty of rotation depth but no  ace; some good bullpen arms but no established post-Kroon closer; nice x-factor in Hirokazu Sawamura

Other thoughts: Yokohama finishing last is the one sure thing for me. A good season for them would be more about getting meaningful development from guys like Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Keijiro Matsumoto than finishing one place higher in the standings. Hiroshima’s rotation should be better 2-5 this year, but still not on par with the teams I have ahead of them. Every year I predict a tumble for Chunichi, and every year I’m wrong. We’ll see if anything changes this year. I’ve changed my mind about Yakult a bit this offseason. They’re still under the radar but they have some talent. Hanshin and Yomiuri have a lot in common, but I like the Giants’ rotation depth better.

The Pacific League is balanced. In fact, this is probably the first time I can say that I think that every team in the league has a chance to finish first. That makes it difficult to pick winners this year, so I’m going to try something different. I’ve got the teams ranked not by where I think they’ll finish, but by how likely I think they are to finish first.

6. Orix Buffaloes (offseason summary)

High-risk, high-reward rotation; new suketto question marks; counting on lots of guys who had their first success in 2010; thin bullpen; Chihiro Kaneko injured

5. Chiba Lotte Marines (offseason summary)

Absence of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Hiroyuki Kobayashi; lineup is due for some regression; not quite sold on starters not named Naruse or Karakawa

4. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles (offseason summary)

Strong front rotation; better lineup with the additions of Kazuo Matsui and Akinori Iwamura; lots of righty bullpen options; new manager

3. Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters (offseason summary)

Yu Darvish; steady rotation; great defense; a few break-out candidates; good 2nd half in 2010; Darvish

2. Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (offseason summary)

Additions of Alex Cabrera and Seiichi Uchikawa; strong lineup 1-9; good 1-2 starters; lights-out bullpen; backed into 2010 title; emerging starters; lots of injury-prone players

1. Saitama Seibu Lions (offseason summary)

Productive lineup; talented core; interesting young pitchers — Yusei Kikuchi, Tatsuya Oishi, Kazuhisa Makita; stalwart ace in Hideaki Wakui

It was tough putting Orix last, since I’m such a big fan of their approach, but everything needs to go right for them to win. Similarly it’s hard having Lotte fifth after a Nippon Series win, but I think their lineup is likely to fall back to earth in 2011. Rakuten in fourth is a bit of a leap of faith for me; last year Chunichi won with four good hitters and a good group of pitchers. Rakuten has the starters (but not the bullpen) and with their additions they might have the offense they need to contend. As for the other three… well, it came down to a toss up between Softbank and Seibu for first. I think I just have a preference for Seibu’s lineup, and more confidence in their ability to remain healthy.

The point is, any one of these teams can win in 2011. It should be a great season.

It’s been a while. Here is a random collection of news articles I’ve read recently and found interesting enough to share.

• Fresh off his release from the Red Sox, Itsuki Shoda is headed to Niigata of the independent BC League.
• Yusei Kikuchi has made Seibu’s opening day roster, and will start the year in middle relief. He’s also working on a two-seam fastball and a changeup, and hit 155 km/h on the gun in a bullpen session.
• Hanshin’s opening day starter? Hasn’t been announced, but lefty Atsushi Nohmi is reportedly in the mix. I can’t see why it wouldn’t be Yasutomo Kubo.
• Osamu Hamanaka is surprisingly a candidate to hit third for Yakult. Hamanka was a good hitter early in his career with Hanshin, but he’s been badly derailed by injuries. Perhaps he’ll experience a Ken Suzuki-style resurgence with Yakult; it is the time of year for optimism.
• Yu Darvish has been experimenting again with a one-seam fastball, and broke Seiichi Uchikawa’s bat with one in a full count on the 6th. I had thought the one-seam was something new that Darvish invented, but the Nikkan Sports article I linked to says that Tim Hudson and Joel Pineiro throw it. Daigo Fujiwara posted a great summary of the pitch last August.
• As of the 8th, the parking lot at Chiba’s newly-renamed QVC Marine Field had not been cleared for usage.
• Seibu has announced that closer Brian Sikorski has returned to Japan after a temporary post-quake visit to the US. All five of Seibu’s players are now back in Japan. Jose Fernandezadmitted to taking it easy while he was away, and since it took a long time to get Sikorski back, the Lions had been looking at using rookie Tatsuya Oishi as their closer.
• Yokohama’s Brent Leach has decided not to return to Japan, and the BayStars have classified him as a “restricted player” (seigen senshu). According to Nikkan Sports, the restricted player designation was established in 1998, and is intended for players who are taking a personal break from baseball activities. Leach is the first player classified as restricted since the rule’s inception.
• Former Chiba Lotte Marines pitchers Tomohiro “Johnny” Kuroki and Satoru Komiyama will be raising a rice field with fans in Sodegaura, Chiba this year.
• iPhone users: magazine Yakyu Kozo has released an app called Makyu Kozo, a cartoon-ish pitching simulation. It looks like it is available in the US app store as well.

And in a site announcement, I’d like to officially welcome our newest writer to NPB Tracker, Adam Burton. Adam is a translator based in the Kansai region of Japan, and has kicked off his NPB Tracker career with a couple MLB updates. Needless to say, we’re happy to have him on board.

Preamble: I tried this before but I was too tired to put my thoughts into words. We’ll see how I do this time.

It’s been nearly a month since the Great Tohoku Earthquake. There are many hardships ahead for the people of the affected regions, but things are progressing. The content at the news outlets I keep an eye on has shifted from coverage of the shocking devastation, to grievance, to stories of survival and recovery, albeit tempered by persistent radiation fears. I must admit that it has been difficult watching the situation unfold from across the ocean.

Baseball is getting back to normal as well. After a couple rounds of negotiations, the NPB players and owners agreed to open their season on April 12th, with the power-saving provisions of not holding night games in the Tokyo area until May, and not playing extra innings at all this year. There was pressure from some quarters (ahem, Yomiuri, I’m looking in your direction) to start the season as previously scheduled and to hold energy-consuming night games, but the more sensitive ideas prevailed. Hanshin third baseman and Players Association chief representative Takahiro Arai deserves a healthy chunk of the credit for pushing the scheduling issue to resolution. In contrast, there was no such controversy over the schedule of the annual Koshien Senbatsu high school tournament, which went on as scheduled and wrapped up over the weekend. I didn’t pay much attention to the tournament at all this year (I left that to Ken), but the significance of the Tohoku High School players as the first post-quake inspirational figures on Japan’s athletic landscape was not lost on me.

It’s not really fair to compare NPB with Koshien here — the Senbatsu is a short tournament played in the Osaka area, which was not affected by the earthquake — but I think both groups arrived at the appropriate outcomes. NPB is a business run by adults, and it took responsible, mature leadership to determine an acceptable response the circumstances. Beyond the business though, baseball is a game for children, and I’m glad the kids got the chance to play. Looking past the inspirational and unity stuff, Koshien is the biggest stage most of the players involved will ever see. And at the end of the day, the burden of recovery is really on the adults.

It’s rare that I’ll include an image in an NPB Tracker post, much less a copyrighted one, but I’ll make an exception for this.

The Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles will be wearing this patch on their uniforms this season, recalling the 1995 Orix Blue Wave Ganbarou Kobe patch. Translated to English, this patch says “ganbarou Tohoku”, meaning “do your best Tohoku.”

The rest of the league will be wearing a “ganbarou Nippon” version on their helmets:

Tomorrow’s professional baseball stars have to come from somewhere, and in Japan more often than not a young ballplayer will cut his teeth with a top high school team. The best kokoyakyu (high school baseball) teams are featured in two annual national tournaments, known colloquially as Spring and Summer Koshien. The spring tournament, or Senbatsu, is an invitational competition involving 32 teams. This year’s champion, Tokaidai Sagami, was crowned on Sunday. Here’s a look at some of the top individual performers from the just-concluded event:

Shuuto Takajo, C, Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku

Though his team fell short in the final game, Kyukou’s catcher put on one of the best hitting shows of the tournament. He batted 12-for-19 (.632) over 5 games and had a stretch of 8 consecutive hits. His talent was best on display when he batted 5-for-5 with a double against Hokkai.

Yoshinao Kamata, RHP, Kanazawa

Though his team lasted only one game, it was clear from the outset that Kamata was the best professional pitching prospect this tournament had to offer. His fastball reached 150 kph, but more importantly he has good command and movement of an excellent slider and change-up. He started out fooling batters with a terrific ability to change speeds and locate his pitches. His pitch selection was intelligent.

His defense failed him, however, and by the 5th inning seemed to either run out of gas or let frustration get the better of him. His team had very little offense as well and it all lead to a 4-0 loss in which he allowed 8 hits but struck out 11. He needs to improve his stamina, but should be an exciting player to look out for this summer.

Tokaidai Sagami hitters: Hirotsugu Satoh (C) Shunta Tanaka (IF) Tetsuya Usuda (CF), Masaru Watanabe (RF)

I’m cheating a bit on this one. I had wanted to select one player to represent how powerful this team’s offense was, and I couldn’t. The team banged out a tournament record 74 hits and outscored their final two opponents by a combined score of 22-3 (46-9 overall). These four players alone, who comprise the top of the lineup, went 21-for-42 (.500) with 11 extra base hits over just those two games! In the championship game, Watanabe also played outstanding defense, making two difficult catches in deep right field and the team ran the bases very aggressively. It made a huge difference as their offensive machine steamrolled the competition.

Takumi Miyoshi, RHP, Kyushu Kokusaidai Fuzoku

It’s hard to get through Koshien without an ace, and Kyukoku had Miyoshi to lean on. The right hander started out the tournament like gangbusters, striking out 23 batters and allowing only 12 hits over his first 18 innings pitched. As the competition became tougher, his numbers dipped, but he was still able to maintain a 3.00 ERA for the tournament despite taking a 14 hit, 6 run pounding in the final game. While he didn’t hit for much average, Miyoshi clubbed two home runs of his own.

Sho Azegami, CF, Nichidai-san

The only player to outdo Takajo in a single-game performance, Azegami’s highlight game was a 6-for-6 day in a 13-2 win over Kakogawa Kita. Over the entire tournament he batted .688 (11-for-16) for his strong Tokyo team. He knocked in 6 runs while adding 3 doubles and a triple to his ledger. Over his four game stint, it added up to a 1.000 slugging percentage. Unfortunately, his team was done in by Kyukoku in the semifinal round.

Ryoma Matsuda, RHP, Hasami

Lastly, it wouldn’t be right to conclude without mentioning the stellar individual effort of Ryoma Matsuda. He was able to stifle a traditionally strong Yokohama High School in his opening game, allowing no earned runs. He showed a similar effort in the second round, surrendering two runs (1 earned). Despite this, his team bowed out of the competition by not providing him any run support that day, and Matsuda finished the tournament 1-1 with a 0.50 ERA.

** I would like to thank my friends Edwin Dizon (who can be found on Twitter as @RealEdwinDizon) and Shin for their input and insight during these past two weeks. I could not have compiled this list without their help.

A special thank you goes to Michael Westbay for once again providing all the Koshien fans a free online space to interact, watch, chat, and learn together during Senbatsu.

I have an exciting announcement to make on this first day of the fourth month of the 2011th year since we started counting. I have agreed to terms to sell NPB Tracker and it’s related properties to America Online. Apparently AOL was looking for the next hot property to scoop up after buying the Huffington Post and decided we were it. Needless to say, we’re excited about moving to our new home.