A Look Ahead at This Year’s FA Class
Only the most eagle-eyed readers will notice this, but I just updated the navigation bar, retiring last year’s free agents page, and replacing it with (surprise) an updated page for this season.
This year I’m going to start with a small list of players, and build it up over time. Here’s what I have so far:
International Free Agents
Hiro Kobayashi (RHP, Chiba Lotte Marines, Data): Kobayashi had a lengthy career as an underrated starter before moving to the bullpen in 2010, where he has been very effective. Kobayashi doesn’t have a power arm, but attacks the strike zone.
Chang Yong Lim (RHP, Yakult Swallows, Data): Certainly the top arm available in the international pool, the 34 year-old reliever had flirtations with MLB prior to moving to Japan. It would be interesting to see how his unusual combination of a low arm angle and velocity play at the MLB level.
Brian Falkenborg (LHP, SoftBank Hawks, Data): Falkenborg has dramatically improved his control in Japan (61:7 K:BB in 2010 as of August 12; 61:9 in 2009), and shown good velocity. SoftBank will want to bring him back, but he’ll be a candidate for MLB teams need righty bullpen depth.
Synopsis: the year of the righthanded reliever.
Domestic Free Agents
Seiichi Uchikawa (IF/OF, Yokohama BayStars): The best bat on the domestic market, Uchikawa downplayed his free agency when he qualified, saying he’d need time to think about it. If he decides he wants to play elsewhere in Japan, he’ll have the usual suitors (Hanshin, Yomiuri).
Tsuyoshi Wada (LHP, SoftBank Hawks, Data): Wada has qualified for free agency, but has already commented that “there’s absolutely no reason to exercise”. We’ll see what happens when he qualifies to move to MLB.
Munenori Kawasaki (IF, SoftBank Hawks): Kawasaki is eligible for NPB free agency after the season, but according to Sponichi, wants to hold out for a chance at MLB after next season.
Hisasahi Iwakuma (RHP, Rakuten Golden Eagles, Data): Iwakuma has qualified for domestic free agency, but is already under contract for 2011. He’s one to watch next year.
Synopsis: wait ’til next year.
Posting Candidates
Wei-Yin Chen (LHP, Chunichi Dragons, Data): Chen is an interesting case – he’s registered as a foreign player, but doesn’t have contract language allowing him to become a free agent if he chooses, as the MLB veterans that play in Japan typically do. As such, he subject to the posting system as his only means to move to MLB prior to hitting free agency. He was outspoken about wanting to be posted after last season, and hired Alan Nero to represent him, so I expect him to ask again this offseason. He’s 25, lefthanded, and has an electric arm, so I would expect him to command a healthy transfer fee.
Kyuji Fujikawa (RHP, Hanshin Tigers, Data): Japan’s best strikeout reliever has talked for years about being posted; Hanshin has insisted that Kei Igawa was an exception and that Fujikawa won’t be posted. I profiled Fujikawa way back in June 2008.
Yu Darvish (RHP, Nippon Ham, Data): The rumblings that Darvish wants to be posted have picked up this year, but then again every year there are rumors of an imminent posting and it hasn’t happened yet. I’d say there’s maybe a 1% chance that Darvish gets posted this year. He’s still about four years away from full, international free agency.
Synopsis: I think we see Chen posted, at the most.
12/08/2010 at 8:03 pm Permalink
Taiwan’s preliminary 45-man roster for the Asian Games include a lot of NPB players (Chen, of course) and Kuo Hung-chih.
http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?ID=201008110044&Type=aSPT
14/08/2010 at 6:24 pm Permalink
If the Fighters can’t contend for the playoffs every year, the chances of Darvish asking to be posted will increase. This of course contradicts an earlier statement by him where he announced he would never leave NPB, to act as a role model for Japanese youth and an ambassador of sorts for the quality of the league itself.
Looking a little further ahead, who do you think would garner more interest (money) from MLB clubs, Darvish or Tanaka? Both should be front and center on display come the next WBC. Ma-kun is already revered up here in Sendai, but he did train in the US over the past offseason, perhaps planting a seed in his mind for the major leagues…? Especially if Rakuten continues losing year after year, one would think that a player of that caliber might want to ply his trade elsewhere…
As always, keep up the great work on the site!
14/08/2010 at 8:54 pm Permalink
If the Fighters can’t contend for the playoffs every year, the chances of Darvish asking to be posted will increase. This of course contradicts an earlier statement by him where he announced he would never leave NPB, to act as a role model for Japanese youth and an ambassador of sorts for the quality of the league itself.
Yeah, Darvish has repeatedly disavowed any interest in playing in MLB, but has backed off that some this year.
Looking a little further ahead, who do you think would garner more interest (money) from MLB clubs, Darvish or Tanaka? Both should be front and center on display come the next WBC. Ma-kun is already revered up here in Sendai, but he did train in the US over the past offseason, perhaps planting a seed in his mind for the major leagues…? Especially if Rakuten continues losing year after year, one would think that a player of that caliber might want to ply his trade elsewhere…
All things being equal, definitely Darvish. Darvish shows more pitches and is more polished; while Tanaka is a little younger and may have some upside, I don’t think his potential is necessarily as good as Darvish is now. Darvish also has years of hype backing him up, which will drive up the price. Tanaka has a good arm though.
14/08/2010 at 8:55 pm Permalink
Taiwan’s preliminary 45-man roster for the Asian Games include a lot of NPB players (Chen, of course) and Kuo Hung-chih.
http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?ID=201008110044&Type=aSPT
I didn’t see a list on that page. I wonder if Wei-Tzu Lin is on the list. I’ve always liked him as a player.
14/08/2010 at 10:44 pm Permalink
Here you go.
http://mag.udn.com/mag/sports/storypage.jsp?f_MAIN_ID=115&f_SUB_ID=609&f_ART_ID=264337
24/08/2010 at 10:12 am Permalink
Chunichi turning it down.
http://www.nownews.com/2010/08/24/341-2639476.htm
08/09/2010 at 11:48 pm Permalink
Will Chen have to wait the requisite 9 years for international free agency, or is he simply signed on a 3-4 year contract? If it’s 9 years, I don’t see why Chunichi would ever post him.
09/09/2010 at 1:39 pm Permalink
He has to accumulate nine years of service time. It’s definitely makes no sense for Chunichi to post him unless he refuses to play for them or something. He seemed pretty serious about MLB last year, so I don’t know what direction this will take.