NPB Tracker

I’ve written a lot about the top three free agents coming out of NPB after this season, but there are several other lesser names that have been in the news as well. A thread on JapaneseBaseball.com listing a few has made the rounds to EastWindupChronicle and MLB Trade Rumors, and I’ve done some research and found a couple of other guys that have qualified since that list was published. Some of these players qualify under new rules that shorten the amount of service time required to attain free agency.

Fortunately the Japanese media doesn’t shy away from jumping the gun and speculating so let the hot-stove fun begin.

Tomohiro Nioka (INF, Yomiuri Giants): I’m not sure if Nioka will rack up the service time he needs to move internationally by the end of the season. He’s gotten some negative publicity over his extra-marital flirtation with a TV newscaster this season, so the Giants may be ready to move on from him.

Masahiro Araki (2B, Chunichi Dragons): Araki has hinted at trying the free agent market, but I would be surprised if he signed elsewhere.

Hirokazu Ibata (SS, Chunichi Dragons): Nikkei Sports reports that Ibata will remain with Chunichi and “has no interest in filing for free agency.”

Ryoji Aikawa (C, Yokohama BayStars): I don’t see him leaving Yokohama. Haven’t had much luck in finding media reports on his free agency.

Tatsuhiko Kinjoh (CF, Yokohama BayStars): According to Sponichi, Kinjoh is not planning on declaring free agency and will stay with the BayStars, at least for another year.

Naoyuki Ohmura (CF, Softbank Hawks): Ohmura has stated publicly that he wants to try his hand at MLB. “I want to go,” says Ohmura, “life is short and you only get one chance at it.” Ohmura is a contact hitter with zero power. He can probably start for an NPB team that gets power from other positions, or be possibly be a 4th outfielder type in MLB. Think So Taguchi.

Ryota Igarashi (RP, Yakult Swallows): The hard-throwing reliever will carefully think over his options in the off-season. He’s eligible for domestic free agency, and he’s in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

Akihiro Higashide (2B, Hiroshima Carp): Higashide made some comments that you don’t typically hear from Japanese players: “I’ve worked hard to reach free agency. This is the result of year after year of fighting to be my best. I have to put good results in this kind of year.” True to his words, Higashide is in the midst of a break-out season, third in the Central League with a .334 BA (career BA: .255). It looks like he’s qualified for domestic free agency; there is speculation that he could draw interest from Hanshin, Yomiuri, and Chunichi. I would hate to see Hiroshima lose yet another star.

Norihiro Nakamura (3B, Chunichi Dragons): “Not interested in other teams“ were his exact words. Has had two MLB flirtations and drama at Kintetsu/Orix before finally settling into a groove with Chunichi. I can’t see him anywhere else.

Masafumi Hirai (RP, Chunichi Dragons): Qualified for free agency last year, but elected to sign a one year contract with Chunichi. Having a bad season. Kind of an MLB sleeper type.

Atsunori Inaba (OF, Nippon Ham Fighters): Inaba’s contract is up, but he’s unlikely to move.

Daisuke Miura (SP, Yokohama BayStars): Miura is finishing up a six-year contract with Yokohama. Hanshin is already gearing up to make a play for him.

Kim Dong-Ju (3B, Doosan (Korea)): Orix is looking at Kim as their third baseman for next year. EastWindup Chronicle has his numbers and some analysis.

Most of these guys will probably stay put — such is free agency in NPB. But with a the new free agency rules and an uptick in trades, there is certainly more potential for movement than there has been in the past.

Going light on English today, for no particular reason:

• Janblurr keeps us up-to-date us on the Koshien high school baseball tournament.
• Deanna chats with Seibu outfielder Hiram Bocachica.

Lots of Japanese-language links to share today:

• Ten major league teams have scouts at the Olympics watching upcoming free agents Hitoki Iwase, Koji Uehara, and Kenshin Kawakami, as well as phenom Yu Darvish and stopper Kyuji Fujikawa. The Yankees, Mets, Angels, and Padres were named as teams with reps present.
• Orix is working on retaining the services of sluggers Tuffy Rhodes and Alex Cabrera for next year
• US Olympic Team manager Davey Johnson commented on Yu Darvish: “No question Yu Darvish is a big league-level pitcher. They’ve got a lot of other good pitchers together too” and Japan manager Senichi Hoshino: “I remember from my time with the Giants that he had a lot of strikeouts. He was great as a player and a manager.”
• Hanshin Tigers speedy center fielder Norihiro Akahoshi set a new NPB record by going 1930 plate appearances without a home run. He surpassed the previous record held by former Hanshin second baseman and current Hanshin coach Yutaka Wada.
• The Seibu Lions celebrated their francise’s 4000th win on Monday with a 3-0 victory over Nippon Ham.
• Rakuten Eagles ace Hisashi Iwakuma won his 15th game of the season, and lowered his ERA to 2.04 to pull ahead of Yu Darvish for the league lead.
• Lotte will suit up in their old Lotte Orions unforms for their next six games. I think the uniform has aged well — see here and here. The Yakyu Shop has throwback caps for sale.

For the first time since the current 3-team playoff system was introduced, all six Pacific League teams have a reasonable shot at qualifying for the post-season. Here are the current standings:

The six teams’ performance has actually been a little closer than their won-loss records might indicate. Let’s take a look at the Pacific League Pythagorean standings:

*Apologies for the somewhat crappy quality of the formatting on these charts — I made them in Excel and didn’t test on a wide variety of browsers.

I was surprised to see that Orix has a positive run differential, but aside from that this is about what I expected. Only Seibu has really separated themselves from the pack, mostly due to a powerful offense. The teams are mostly even with each other; home/road splits and interleague performance might explain the differences in won/lost records.

Now for some thoughts on how things will play out for the rest of the season…

Seibu
The Lions would have to really slump to miss the playoffs, but if someone else is going to take a run at them, now would be the time. Ace Hideaki Wakui, slugger GG Sato, and PL batting avg Hiroyuki Nakajima are all representing Japan in the Olympics and will miss most of August. I think they’re a lock at this point.

Nippon Ham
The Fighters get it done with pitching and defense, outplaying their expected won-lost record by 3 games. The absence of Yu Darvish for the Olympics will be felt in Sapporo, as will that of leading batter Atsunori Inaba. Still I think they’re in good shape for a playoff berth.

Softbank
Masayoshi Son’s team wasn’t able to acquire the big bat they were looking for, and now they’re faced with losing twin lefty aces Toshiya Sugiuchi and Tsuyoshi Wada to Olympics, as well as table-setter Munenori Kawasaki. They’ll have to rely on rehabbing Nagisa Arakaki and their foreign starters throughout August to stay competitive.

Lotte
After a slow start, Lotte has played back into contention. Lotte is losing three key guys to the Olympics — lefty starter Yoshihisa Naruse, infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and catcher Tomoya Satozaki, but has Julio Zuleta and Shingo Ono returning from the injured list. Those guys don’t quite balance out the stars that will be gone, but Bobby Valentine is confident. I’d love to see these guys make it the playoffs; Bobby has done a ton for Japanese baseball, they have great fans and a good group of guys.

Orix
New manager Daijiro Ohishi seems to have energized the Buffaloes back to competitiveness, along with the resurgence of veteran import sluggers Tuffy Rhodes and Alex Cabrera. The presence of Kazuhiro Kiyohara could serve as motivational factor as well. Orix isn’t sending anyone to the Olympics, so now is their time to strike. I’d love to see these guys make the playoffs; Ohishi turning the team around mid-season is a great story and I’d like to Tuffy in the playoffs again.

Rakuten
The Golden Eagles are sitting in last place despite their +11 run differential, which is 2nd best in the league. They’d have to go on a tear to come back from 11 games under .500, but it’s possible. Young righthander Masahiro Tanaka is Rakuten’s only Olympic representative. I’d love to see these guys make the playoffs; manager Nomura has done a great job making the team competitive and they have some great pitchers that would really be tough in a short series.

So the Olympics will loom large in the already tight Pacific League playoff race. Should be a great pennant race!

If you’ve been reading this blog, you probably know that the top three Japanese free agents this year are pitchers Hitoki Iwase, Kenshin Kawakami, and Koji Uehara. I’ve profiled all three, now it’s time to rank ’em as MLB prospects.

Safest Bet:

1. Iwase: Standout NPB relievers have generally made successful transitions to MLB, and few have been as good in NPB as Iwase. I don’t think the struggles of Kazuo Fukumori and Yasuhiko Yabuta will scare teams away as Iwase has put up significantly better numbers than those guys in NPB.
2. Kawakami: Has been consistently good over the last 5-6 seasons, and having another good year. I think he will be slightly better than Hiroki Kuroda. Look out for a post comparing Kawakami and Kuroda head-to-head some time in the near future.
3. Uehara: Pitched in relief last year; struggled in return to rotation this year, got injured, then came back to the bullpen. He’ll probably only sign with a team that will give him a chance to start.

Highest Upside:

1. Uehara: I can see him having a great year as a starter if he stays healthy and winds up on the right team (big park, good outfield defense, preferably National League). His control sets him apart here.
2. Kawakami: I put him a shade behind Uehara because I think Uehara’s superior control could play better in MLB. I still expect him to be a solid MLB pitcher.
3. Iwase: Best case: Iwase is a solid late-inning reliever. I think he’s the most likely of the three to realize his MLB potential, but as a reliever his value isn’t as high as a starter.

Why do this now, in the middle of the season? Mostly because people outside Japan will get to see all three of these guys pitch in the Olympics this month. It also gives us a chance to watch them over the last two months of the season and see if things change.

Note that it’s not a given that all three of these guys will opt to move over to MLB.

English articles only today, and a fairly random collection.

• The Softbank Source at JapaneseBaseball.com reports on the Hawks’ most recent game.
• Japanese Baseball Cards commemorates Ichiro’s 3000th hit by posting a card from his beardless days.
• Deanna celebrates Masa Yamamoto’s 200th victory (!!!!).
• I happened across an account of a fan’s first visit to a live NPB game.
• Also found this entertaining Hiroshima Carp blog.

The consensus top three NPB free agents this upcoming off season are Koji Uehara, Kenshin Kawakami, and Hitoki Iwase. I’ve already written about Uehara and Kawakami, so today I’ll cover Chunichi Dragons closer Iwase.

Career Thus Far
Hitoki Iwawe is probably the most accomplished relief pitcher currently active in Japan. In his 10 professional seasons with the Dragons, he has a 2.02 ERA with 187 saves and 47-28 record. His peripherals are good as well: in 614 2/3 innings, he’s struck out 565 while walking 140 and allowing only 26 home runs.

Chunichi moved Iwase into the closer role in 2004 with the departure of Akinori Otsuka, and he immediately flourished. In 2005 he set a new NPB save record with 45, starting a run of three consecutive 40+ save seasons. That streak is unlikely to continue this year, as even though he has 27 saves so far, he’ll miss time to play in the Olympics. Overall he’s been a little more hittable this year, but still has a 2.87 ERA and 31/8 K/BB. JapaneseBaseball.com has Iwase’s stats through 2007 available in English, and you can find his stats to date in Japanese here.

2007 Japan Series
The defining moment in Iwase’s career was the deciding fifth game of the 2007 Japan Series. Dragons starter Daisuke Yamai had a perfect game through eight innings when manager Hiromitsu Ochiai controversially summoned Iwase to pitch the 9th. A nervous Iwase sent down the bottom of Nippon Ham’s lineup in order, keeping the perfect game intact and giving Chunichi it’s first Japan Championship since 1954.

You can watch Iwase’s perfect 9th inning on YouTube, or read Gary Garland’s excellent account of the game for more information.

Pitching
Iwase is a three-pitch guy, with a fastball, slider, and shuuto. He’s not going to overpower anyone with a  fastball that sits at about 89 MPH and doesn’t get much faster. That said, his fastball has movement and he spots it well. Iwase’s out pitch is his low 80’s slider, which has good movement and he’ll throw in any count. His third pitch is a shuuto, which he’s throwing more often this year, particularly to right handed hitters. Iwase pitches down in the zone and generally has good command.

I’ve scrounged some YouTube footage of Iwase striking out Yoshinobu Takahashi, not getting the call on a couple of sliders, and throwing fastballs and shuutos in the 2006 All Star game. Yes, that is Daisuke Matsuzaka coaching third base in the All Star game.

Contract Status & MLB Interest
Iwase is among the highest paid pitchers in Japan with his approximately $4.3M/year salary. He qualified for free agency following the 2007 season, but opted to sign a one-year contract to remain with Chunichi. There was speculation that he wanted to see how other Japanese relievers like Masa Kobayashi fare in the big leagues. I’ll also suggest that he wanted to spend another year pitching with his close friend Kenshin Kawakami, and that he wanted to represent Japan in the Olympics. This is purely speculation on my part.

The interest from the MLB side is there. Last year, Iwase drew public interest from the Rockies, Yankees, and White Sox. Sponichi reported earlier this year that the Mariners and Rangers had scouts at the Dragons’ spring training camp. Joel Sherman commented on Iwase during last year’s World Series.

For his part, Iwase seems to be less outspoken about leaving Japan than some of his NPB compatriots. His clearest comment I could find on the matter was “to say I’m not interested would be a lie”.

Synopsis
You’d have to go back to Kazuhiro Sasaki to find an NPB closer with better career numbers than Iwase. Iwase actually beats Sasaki in some categories, but Sasaki’s peak was better than Iwase’s (so far).

Despite the struggles of Yasuhiko Yabuta and Kazuo Fukumori, NPB import relievers have a pretty good track record of MLB success thanks to guys like Sasaki, Akinori Otsuka, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito. That point, combined with Iwase’s achievements, seem to make him a reasonably safe bet for MLB success should he choose to come over. I think the key for him will be to mix up his stuff and not let MLB hitters sit on his fastball.

Japanese Articles:

• Orix has removed the interim tag from manager Daijiro Ohishi’s title. Ohishi has led the team back into contention after a dismal start to the season.
• In more Orix news, veteran slugger Kazuhiro Kiyohara appeared in his first game since 2006. Kiyohara entered the game in 7th innning as a pinch hitter, striking out swinging in his only at bat in what looks like the beginning of his farewell tour.
• Kei Igawa commented his removal from the Yankees 40-man roster on his blog. He mostly reiterates things that he’s said before: that he has no intention of returning to Japan and that he’s using this experience as motivation to reach the Major Leagues.

English Articles:

• Tokyo Big6 University League rivals Waseda and Keio are travelling to Brazil to play some exhibition games in recognition of 100 years of Japanese immigration to Brazil.
• The Royals designated Yasuhiko Yabuta for assignment, giving the Royals 10 days to trade or release the former Lotte reliever.
• Bobby Valentine comments on his Marines’ 2nd half chances on Marines.tv.
• Deanna treats us to postings on All-Star Game 1 and Game 2.

The trade/foreign player acquisition deadline came and went without Sadaharu Oh’s Fukuoka Softbank Hawks adding the power bat they were looking for. According to Nishi Nippon Sports, the Hawks were looking for a player who could hit and field, and had someone in mind when they sent team COO Takeuchi to America on July 28 for last minute negotiations. Said team representative Tsunoda, “in the end we narrowed it down to one player and made an offer, but he didn’t accept”. Tsunoda adds that they were looking for someone that they could hang on to for next season. I guess we’ll never know who they were targeting.

This leaves Softbank with Michael Restovich as the only foreign batter on the team’s roster. Restovich has so far been a disappointment with only three home runs and a .231 batting average, and is currently working on his game with the farm team. Softbank’s failure to add a bat may give him a chance to re-establish himself.

Softbank is losing two players to the Olympics; lefy starters Tsuyoshi Wada and Toshiya Sugiuchi. The Hawks are only two games over .500, and is only 2.5 games ahead of Orix for 3rd place in Pacific League. 5th and 6th place Lotte and Rakuten are 3 and 6 games back respectively, so it looks like it’ll be a tight race for the third and final playoff spot in the Pacific League.